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European Oil Markets
23JUL

Iraq ramps Ceyhan pipeline toward 770kbd

3 min read
19:27UTC

Iraq is raising Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline throughput from 220kbd toward a 770kbd target over roughly two and a half months, the first new European-accessible crude route since the conflict began.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Ceyhan is the first real new supply lever, and its medium sour grade is what makes it count.

Iraq is ramping the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline from 220kbd (thousand barrels per day) toward a 770kbd target over roughly two and a half months 1. The line carries crude from the Kirkuk fields to Ceyhan, Turkey's Mediterranean export terminal, delivering oil to European refiners without touching the Gulf. The push comes as Iraq's southern output fell 70% to 1.3mbd and its seaborne exports dropped 97% in May, so the northern pipeline is replacing collapsed southern volume.

Oil funds about 90% of Iraqi state revenue, which makes the ramp a fiscal necessity rather than an opportunistic grab for market share. With the south choked, Baghdad has to push crude through the only export artery still open to it.

Kirkuk's medium sour barrels map directly onto the feedstock Mediterranean refiners lost when Russian Urals and Iraqi Basra supply tightened, so the addition matters by grade as much as by volume. That substitution, rather than the headline barrel count, is why a full ramp to 770kbd would rank as the largest European-accessible crude addition of the conflict so far. Where early-May freight priced a Hormuz-wide closure with the VLCC TD3C route near WS458 , Ceyhan reframes the question from how to avoid the Gulf to whether the Mediterranean can be loaded fast enough to refill it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iraq has two main ways to get its oil to buyers. The first is southern ports in the Gulf, which use supertankers, but those tankers cannot easily pass through the Strait of Hormuz blockade right now. The second is a long pipeline running north through Iraq and Turkey to the Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan. Iraq is now trying to push as much oil as possible through that northern pipeline, ramping it from its current 220,000 barrels a day up to a target of 770,000. That oil would reach European refineries much more easily than Gulf oil right now. The problem is that this pipeline has had political disputes for years over who controls the oil fields and who gets paid what, so getting it to full capacity is not straightforward.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Iraq's southern seaborne exports collapsing 97% to 1.3mbd reflects the Hormuz closure's direct impact on a country that routes most of its southern production through Basra Oil Terminal and Al-Faw, both of which require VLCC tankers that cannot safely transit a blockaded strait. Unlike Kuwait, which also has southern port dependency, Iraq has the Kirkuk-Ceyhan alternative.

Activating that alternative at scale requires resolving three overlapping constraints simultaneously: the Erbil-Baghdad lifting rights dispute, pipeline integrity maintenance deferred during the years of low utilisation (220kbd for most of 2024-25), and Turkey's transit tariff demands which EPDK has historically leveraged as a fiscal policy instrument.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    A fully ramped Kirkuk-Ceyhan at 770kbd would add roughly one-third of Libya's total export programme to Mediterranean supply, providing a partial offset for the Gulf closure that European refiners have not had since April.

  • Risk

    The KRG-Baghdad fiscal dispute and Turkey's transit leverage mean the ramp could stall or reverse if payment terms collapse, as they did during the 2022-2023 shutdown.

Sources:OilPrice.com
Mentions:Iraq →VLCC →Kurdistan →Rystad Energy →Baghdad →Mediterranean →Wood Mackenzie →Libya →Ankara →Turkey →Urals →TD3C →Strait of Hormuz →Basra →Kirkuk-Ceyhan →Ceyhan →Kirkuk →
First Reported In

Update #6 · OPEC's quota is fiction at a 37-year low

OilPrice.com· 8 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Iraq ramps Ceyhan pipeline toward 770kbd
Kirkuk's medium sour slate substitutes for the Basra and Urals feedstock Mediterranean refiners lost, so a 550kbd addition could soften Med sour differentials on grade match alone, independent of where the flat price sits.
Led to
Iraq's Ceyhan backstop stalls at 190kbd
Prior event established Iraq's Ceyhan ramp toward 770kbd as the key non-Hormuz backstop; the new event records that ramp has stalled at 190kbd.
Occurred 10 Jun 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers had trimmed WTI net long positioning into July's rally, doubting the Hormuz premium would hold without freight or war-risk confirmation, and the crude stock build reported for the week to 17 July gives that scepticism a fundamentals basis. The 25 July CFTC data will show whether Brent's move above $100 changed their calculus.
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Singapore's distillate holders kept retaining middle-distillate barrels as the East-West arbitrage window narrowed further this week, a pattern that sharpened as Fujairah light distillates hit a record low. Cargoes are being held rather than released west into the tightening Mediterranean market.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria secured the removal of Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov and Patriarch Kirill from the 21st package, with President Rumen Radev calling a personal listing 'shooting ourselves in the foot'. Sofia is protecting its position in Lukoil's EUR 3bn compensation claim over the 2023 Neftohim Burgas nationalisation.
Russia
Russia
Russia loses the roughly $14 a barrel of legal headroom the price-cap formula would have released toward $58, even as Urals continues trading below Moscow's $59 budget floor. The shadow-fleet insurance workaround that lets sanctioned crude clear above $44 in practice remains untouched by the freeze itself.
European Union
European Union
The EU adopted its 21st sanctions package on 23 July, freezing the $44 Russia oil cap for 12 months rather than letting the formula drift it toward $58, and listed shadow-fleet support vessels for the first time. The package cleared only after three failed Coreper votes.
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
War-risk syndicates lifted southern Red Sea hull premiums 150% to about 0.75% of hull value after the 20 July blockade declaration, still a seventh of the roughly 5% Hormuz band. Underwriters reset on realised loss, not declared threat, so the 23 July Encelia and Layla strikes set up the next re-mark.