22JUN

Rezaei hosts Mecca pact chiefs in Tehran

3 min read

13:56UTC

Saudi Arabia's defence minister, Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's spy chief met Iran's security council secretary in Tehran. Each side then told a different story about why.

← Back to Spark spread now feeds the winter deficit Jump to analysis ↓

EconomicAssessed

Key takeaway

Tehran called the meeting a regional security order; Riyadh called it support for mediation.

On Monday 26 October Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), hosted Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey's intelligence service, in Tehran⁠¹. President Masoud Pezeshkian also met the delegations. The joint statement says only that "the participants agreed to continue the dialogue to strengthen cooperation among the four regional countries, including for peace and security in the region".

Rezaei said afterwards that "West Asia's security must be based on the countries of the region", IRNA reported⁠², a line absent from the joint statement. Saudi Arabia described the visit as support for mediation by Qatar and Pakistan⁠³. Tehran's version casts the pact states as partners in a Gulf order without Washington; Riyadh's casts them as couriers.

The three guests speak for the states of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, the mutual-defence pact Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed on 7 August. They invoked it in Riyadh on 5 October after attacks on Saudi Arabia, which the statement did not attribute. Riyadh and Ankara sent security men, not diplomats; their foreign ministers had met Britain, France and Germany in Istanbul three days earlier. Egypt, the fourth state at the Istanbul table, did not come to Tehran.

Munir was back in Tehran six days after Pezeshkian told him sanctions must be lifted before any negotiations.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual-defence pact in Mecca in August. Each promised to help the others if attacked. On 26 October senior security figures from all three went to Tehran to meet Iran's top security official, Mohsen Rezaei. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, also met them. Their joint statement only said they would keep talking. Iran then claimed the meeting backed security run by the region's own countries. Saudi Arabia said it was there to support peace talks run by Qatar and Pakistan.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was invoked over attacks on Saudi Arabia. Each attack raises the chance of a clash between pact forces and Iran or its allies, which gives all four states a reason to open a channel between their militaries.

Pakistan carries a particular exposure. It borders Iran, has a large Shia minority, and sits in a pact with Riyadh. Field Marshal Asim Munir returned to Tehran six days after Pezeshkian told him sanctions must go before any talks, which suggests Islamabad's mediation and its pact duty now run through the same man.

Escalation

Flat to slightly downward. The meeting created a direct channel between Iran and three pact militaries but produced no commitment beyond further dialogue, and Houthi missiles were fired at Riyadh the next day.

What could happen next?

Meaning
Iran now has a security channel to Riyadh's defence ministry that does not depend on Qatari or Pakistani mediators.
Short term · Suggested
Risk
Divergent public accounts from Tehran and Riyadh leave the meeting open to being disowned if attacks on Saudi Arabia continue.
Short term · Suggested
Precedent
Egypt's absence shows the Istanbul grouping and the Tehran grouping are different clubs.
Medium term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

Primary parallel: The Saudi-Iranian deal of 10 March 2023, brokered in Beijing, was negotiated by Iran's then security council secretary Ali Shamkhani and Saudi national security adviser Musaed al-Aiban, not by foreign ministers. Security chiefs reopened embassies that diplomats had failed to reopen for seven years.

Counter-parallel: Turkey, Pakistan and Iran once sat in one pact, the Central Treaty Organization, with Britain as a member and the United States as a backer. It collapsed in 1979 when Iran's revolution took Tehran out. A regional bloc built round an outside power proved as durable as its weakest member's government.

Consensus view: Riyadh's own account, carried by Shafaq News, presents the visit as support for mediation by Qatar and Pakistan, which casts Khalid bin Salman as a messenger for talks that run elsewhere. Sending a defence minister, an army chief and an intelligence chief fits talks about avoiding clashes between forces, the work of soldiers, more than a political settlement.

Counter-view: Tehran's reading, through Rezaei's line to IRNA that "West Asia's security must be based on the countries of the region", treats the same meeting as the start of a regional order that leaves out outside powers. That line appears in no joint text, so it is Iran's claim on the meeting, not the meeting's own conclusion.

Key tension: Whether the pact states came to Tehran as partners in a regional security channel or as couriers for Doha and Islamabad.

First Reported In

Update #183 · Iran threatens legal action on Sinokor ships

Arab News Pakistan· 29 Oct 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Saudis, Turks and Pakistanis invoke pact

The Tehran guests represent the three states that invoked the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 5 October.

Occurred 5 Oct 2026

Read story →

Lavrov and Munir visit Tehran in 2 days

Munir returned to Tehran six days after Pezeshkian told him sanctions must be lifted before talks.

Occurred 20 Oct 2026

Read story →

This Event

Rezaei hosts Mecca pact chiefs in Tehran

The three states bound by the Mecca defence pact sat down with Iran's security chief, and Tehran and Riyadh gave rival accounts of the purpose.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.