YouGov's Holyrood MRP (11 April 2026) projects the SNP at 67 seats in 89% of simulations — two above the 65-seat majority threshold. All 67 seats are projected from constituencies.Source: YouGov

What has the IFS said about the SNP's spending plans?

The IFS found the SNP overstates NHS Barnett consequentials by £1.6bn in its 2026 manifesto, part of a cross-party summary declaring no Scottish party has a credible fiscal plan.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies

When is the SNP manifesto launch?

The SNP manifesto launch is scheduled for 16 April 2026 at Edinburgh Park, with Scottish independence as the lead commitment.Source: SNP

Background

The Scottish National Party has governed Scotland continuously since 2007, making it the longest-serving party of government in the devolved era. Founded in 1934, it won its first Holyrood majority under Alex Salmond in 2011 and secured the 2014 independence referendum, losing 55-45. Successive leaders Nicola Sturgeon (2014-2023) and Humza Yousaf (2023-2024) preceded the current leader, John Swinney, who became First Minister in May 2024. The SNP holds 9 Westminster seats from the 2024 general election. The party's central strategic goal remains Scottish independence.

At the 7 May 2026 Holyrood election the SNP won 58 of 129 seats, seven below the 65-seat threshold Swinney named as the trigger for a 2028 independence referendum. Turnout fell to 53.0%, down 10.5 points from 2021. Swinney was sworn in on 14 May and formally requested a Section 30 order from Downing Street despite the self-imposed 65-seat precondition. Contradictory readouts emerged from Bute House and No. 10 of the same Starmer-Swinney phone call: the SNP said Starmer 'agreed to meet next month to discuss a referendum'; Downing Street said a referendum 'would not be on the agenda'. The SNP intends to bring a Section 30 vote to Holyrood within a week of government formation and publish a draft referendum bill within 100 days. Post-election YouGov polling shows 56% No against 44% Yes, a widening of the independence deficit since the election campaign.

Swinney has kept pressing the SNP-Green majority as an independence mandate despite the missed 65-seat trigger, but on 7 July Labour leadership frontrunner Andy Burnham told Scottish Labour MPs he would not grant a Section 30 order, offering enhanced devolution instead and confirming Westminster's refusal survives the change of Downing Street occupant.