More in Common's Holyrood MRP projected the SNP at 63–64 seats, below the 65-seat majority threshold, diverging from YouGov and Electoral Calculus projections of 67 seats.Source: More in Common MRP

What does More in Common do?

More in Common is a non-partisan UK research organisation founded in 2017 after the murder of MP Jo Cox. It publishes polling and research on social cohesion, public attitudes, and electoral behaviour.

What does More in Common's Holyrood MRP say about the SNP?

More in Common's April 2026 Holyrood MRP projected the SNP at 56 seats — nine short of the 65-seat majority threshold. This contrasts with YouGov and Electoral Calculus, which both project 67 SNP seats with an 89% majority probability.Source: More in Common

Background

More in Common is a UK non-partisan research and polling organisation that focuses on social cohesion, public attitudes, and electoral behaviour. Founded in 2017 following the murder of MP Jo Cox, with a mission to understand what unites and divides societies, its UK research programme publishes polling on social values, community cohesion, and electoral splits.

In April 2026, More in Common published a Holyrood MRP projecting the SNP at 56 seats — nine short of the 65-seat majority threshold — with Reform UK on 22 and Scottish Labour on 17. This diverged significantly from the YouGov and Electoral Calculus models, both projecting the SNP at 67 seats with an 89% majority probability. The 11-seat gap between the models attracted substantial coverage and highlighted the genuine uncertainty in the 2026 Scottish projection in the final campaign weeks. Also published a Senedd MRP for Wales in the same period.

More in Common expanded into MRP modelling for the 2026 cycle, placing itself alongside established pollsters in the projection space. The divergence from YouGov and Electoral Calculus means the SNP's majority or minority status is genuinely uncertain: a two-seat difference changes whether Swinney can govern without any external support. The question of which MRP is closer to the truth will not be resolved until counting night on 7 May.