More in Common
UK polling and research organisation whose Holyrood MRP projected the SNP short of a majority in April 2026.
Last refreshed: 26 April 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Why does More in Common project the SNP 11 seats lower than YouGov, and which model will be right?
Timeline for More in Common
SNP wins 58, below 65-seat trigger
UK Local Elections 2026Mentioned in: Reform enters Holyrood on 17 MSPs
UK Local Elections 2026Published final Senedd MRP projecting Plaid and Reform tied at 34 seats each
UK Local Elections 2026: Wales Greens fall from 10 to 2Published Holyrood MRP at 56 as the lower convergence baseline now resolved to 62
UK Local Elections 2026: SNP at 62, three short of 65Published Holyrood MRP projecting SNP 56 seats short of majority
UK Local Elections 2026: More in Common puts SNP short of majority- What is More in Common's 2026 Scottish election projection?
- More in Common's Holyrood MRP projected the SNP at 63–64 seats, below the 65-seat majority threshold, diverging from YouGov and Electoral Calculus projections of 67 seats.Source: More in Common MRP
- What does More in Common do?
- More in Common is a non-partisan UK research organisation founded in 2017 after the murder of MP Jo Cox. It publishes polling and research on social cohesion, public attitudes, and electoral behaviour.
- What does More in Common's Holyrood MRP say about the SNP?
- More in Common's April 2026 Holyrood MRP projected the SNP at 56 seats — nine short of the 65-seat majority threshold. This contrasts with YouGov and Electoral Calculus, which both project 67 SNP seats with an 89% majority probability.Source: More in Common
- Is More in Common a reliable polling organisation?
- More in Common is a non-partisan research organisation founded in 2017 following the murder of Jo Cox. It expanded into MRP polling for the 2026 UK election cycle. Its track record on MRP accuracy is limited; the 2026 Scottish result will be the first major test.Source: More in Common
Background
More in Common is a UK non-partisan research and polling organisation that focuses on social cohesion, public attitudes, and electoral behaviour. Founded in 2017 following the murder of MP Jo Cox, with a mission to understand what unites and divides societies, its UK research programme publishes polling on social values, community cohesion, and electoral splits.
In April 2026, More in Common published a Holyrood MRP projecting the SNP at 56 seats — nine short of the 65-seat majority threshold — with Reform UK on 22 and Scottish Labour on 17. This diverged significantly from the YouGov and Electoral Calculus models, both projecting the SNP at 67 seats with an 89% majority probability. The 11-seat gap between the models attracted substantial coverage and highlighted the genuine uncertainty in the 2026 Scottish projection in the final campaign weeks. Also published a Senedd MRP for Wales in the same period.
More in Common expanded into MRP modelling for the 2026 cycle, placing itself alongside established pollsters in the projection space. The divergence from YouGov and Electoral Calculus means the SNP's majority or minority status is genuinely uncertain: a two-seat difference changes whether Swinney can govern without any external support. The question of which MRP is closer to the truth will not be resolved until counting night on 7 May.
