15SEP

Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat

2 min read

14:21UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 House races towards Democrats on 29 September, including three Virginia seats and a Missouri district reshaped by the Supreme Court's map order.

← Back to Missouri's election chief held in contempt Jump to analysis ↓

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Key takeaway

Sabato's Crystal Ball now puts Democrats five seats short of a House majority before Toss-ups.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race-rating newsletter of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, made 11 House rating changes on 29 September, all towards Democrats⁠¹. It now counts 213 seats at least Leans Democratic, 202 at least Leans Republican and 20 Toss-ups. On seats leaning their way or better, Democrats sit five short of a House majority.

Three moves were in Virginia, where in-person voting opened on 18 September. Its 2nd District, held by Republican Jen Kiggans, went to Leans Democratic, the 1st to Toss-up and the 5th to Leans Republican. Sabato wrote that a Democratic win in the 5th would fit a 2006-style wave, the year Democrats gained 31 seats and the House in George W. Bush's second midterm.

Another move followed the Supreme Court's Missouri order. Sabato shifted Missouri's 2nd District, where Republican Ann Wagner faces Democrat Fred Wellman, from Likely to Leans Republican. It wrote that the order left Wagner in a "blue-trending Trump +8 seat", a district Trump won by eight points. The 2025 map, which the 8th Circuit had ordered on 21 September, would have given her a district he carried by 11.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Sabato's Crystal Ball is an elections newsletter from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. It is separate from The Cook Political Report but rates races on a similar scale, from Safe to Likely to Leans, with Toss-up in the middle. On 29 September it moved 11 House races, every one towards Democrats. It now puts Democrats ahead in 213 seats. A party needs 218 to control the House, so Democrats are close but not there on this count. Three changes were in Virginia, where people have voted in person since 18 September. One was in Missouri, where the Supreme Court has just decided which district map the state will use.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Virginia is the first big test of turnout this autumn because in-person early voting opened there on 18 September. Raters can watch early turnout in a state with several Republican-held marginal seats before most states have opened polling places.

Missouri's move follows from the courts. The 8th Circuit had ordered the 2025 map, and the Supreme Court's 25 September order reversed it. Under the 2025 map, HB 1, the 2nd District would have been redrawn to a safer Republican seat; under the 2022 map it stays more competitive.

Escalation

Moving towards Democrats. Sabato's 11 moves came four days after Cook's 15, all in the same direction, and neither rater has moved a House seat towards Republicans in that stretch.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Missouri's 2nd District becomes a seat both parties may contest because the Supreme Court kept the 2022 lines.
Meaning
Sabato's 213 and Cook's 208 both fall short of 218, so neither rater yet shows a Democratic majority in its leaning columns.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In 2018 Democrats took three Republican-held Virginia House seats, the 2nd, 7th and 10th, in a midterm against a Republican president. Elaine Luria won the 2nd that year.

Counter-parallel: In 2022 Jen Kiggans beat Luria in the same 2nd District by about three points. Virginia's coastal seats have swung with each national mood rather than settling.

Consensus view: J. Miles Coleman of Sabato's Crystal Ball wrote that a Democratic win in Virginia's 5th District 'would be consistent with a 2006-style blue wave'. On Missouri he said the Supreme Court's order prevented a '7-1 GOP gerrymander', leaving Wagner a 'blue-trending Trump +8 seat' rather than a Trump +11 one.

Counter-view: Cook Political Report, a separate rater, stood at 208 seats at least Lean Democrat four days earlier. The five-seat gap between the two raters shows how much of the House sits on judgement calls about individual districts rather than settled evidence.

Key tension: Whether Virginia's three moves reflect a state-level swing or three local races. If it is statewide, the Republican-held 1st and 5th are only the start.

Sources:Sabato's Crystal Ball

Mentions:Sabato's Crystal Ball →Missouri's 2nd congressional district →Ann Wagner →Fred Wellman →Virginia →Virginia's 2nd congressional district →Jen Kiggans →Missouri →J. Miles Coleman →George W. Bush →Cook Political Report →Supreme Court of the United States →University of Virginia Center for Politics →Inside Elections →Virginia's 5th congressional district →Virginia's 1st congressional district →Elaine Luria →

First Reported In

Update #19 · Bulk voter citizenship checks are back

Sabato's Crystal Ball· 1 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Justices keep Missouri on its 2022 map

Sabato moved Missouri's 2nd District to Leans Republican after the order kept the 2022 map.

Occurred 25 Sept 2026

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This Event

Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat

A second rater now has Democrats within five seats of a House majority before any Toss-up is counted.

Led to

Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats

Sabato's September House moves pointed the same way.

Occurred 14 Oct 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Department of Justice (DOJ)

DOJ appealed to the 9th Circuit after Judge David O. Carter did not rule by a noon deadline on 22 October that DOJ itself had set, seeking to have California set aside mail ballots from more than 20,000 listed voters. Its case is that ineligible votes cancel lawful ones; the panel dismissed the appeal 2-1 on 26 October.

Lower Costs Now

Lower Costs Now reported $7.37m in Kansas on 24 and 25 October, part of $65.65m in Senate races since its first independent expenditure on 1 October, including $17.21m for Josh Turek in Iowa. Its FEC filings show $50.18m raised by 14 October.

MAGA Inc

MAGA Inc, the super PAC aligned with Donald Trump, filed $7.20m against James Talarico on 22 October, taking its Texas spending to $37.65m. Of that, $30.12m is against Talarico and $7.53m is for Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee.

Senate Majority PAC (SMP)

SMP's pre-general report shows it spent $108.70m from 1 to 14 October, including $65.0m to WinSenate and $10.0m to Texas Forever, and ended with $32.72m. Texas Forever has reported $19.40m against Ken Paxton since 1 October.

Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)

SLF's pre-general report shows $88.42m in cash on 14 October and $18.98m raised in the fortnight, none of it from Elon Musk. It has since reported $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and its $2.7m to Plains PAC preceded that committee's first Kansas buy on 25 October.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)

The NRSC's pre-general report shows nothing spent with Ashley Hinson in Iowa, or with its nominees in six other states, from 1 to 14 October, after $5.54m with Hinson in September. It took no new loan and ended the fortnight with $25.20m in cash and $20m of debt.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.