Brent Crude spiked 26.1% to $116.08 per barrel on Monday. WTI surged 27.6% to $116.03. Both represent the largest single-day percentage gains since late 1988 — the tail end of the Iran-Iraq tanker war, the last time Gulf Energy infrastructure faced sustained military attack.
The numbers tell a story of compounding disruption. Brent closed at $67.41 on 27 February, the day before Operation Epic Fury began. It reached $92.69 by Friday , already the largest weekly gain in US crude futures history . Qatar's energy minister warned of $150 per barrel if Hormuz remained closed . By Monday, it had blown past the $100 threshold traders had been watching and kept climbing. A 72% rise in ten trading days matches the price effect of Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait — but that doubling took two months, not two weeks.
The price is driven by at least four independent supply constrictions operating simultaneously. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's force majeure on all exports and Iraq's Rumaila shutdown have removed roughly 3.5 million barrels per day of Gulf production capacity from market. VLCC freight rates hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day , adding $3–4 per barrel in shipping costs alone. Three of the world's largest container lines suspended Gulf service. Every major Protection and Indemnity club cancelled War risk coverage effective 5 March — meaning that even crude not physically blocked by Hormuz cannot find insurance to move.
The fourth factor is structural and longer-term. China's direct negotiations with Iran over bilateral Hormuz transit are creating a two-tier strait: Chinese-linked commerce flows; everyone else waits. If roughly 60% of Gulf oil bound for Asia resumes under Chinese terms while the 40% destined for Western markets remains blocked, the price divergence between Asian and Atlantic basin crude could become a permanent feature of this war's economic geography. The oil price has ceased to be a barometer of the conflict. It is now a variable within it — each Israeli strike on Iranian fuel infrastructure , each IRGC strike on Gulf energy assets , and each day Hormuz remains closed feeds directly into a price mechanism that punishes every oil-importing economy on earth.
