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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
22MAY

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

2 min read
10:57UTC

Brent crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April. Markets are pricing the structural stalemate, not resolution.

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ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Markets are pricing the ceasefire as a ceiling on disruption, not a floor under relief.

Brent Crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning 11 April, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April . The recovery reflects market pricing of the structural stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

The Kpler-projected ceiling of 10 to 15 Hormuz transits per day implies persistent spot-market tightness. Pre-war daily throughput was 120 to 140. Insurance markets will continue pricing transit at war-risk premiums until a credible mine-clearance timeline emerges, which will not happen inside the current diplomatic format. For households in fuel-import-dependent economies, the ceasefire has not yet lowered pump prices, and the physics of the strait suggests it will not do so on any timeline the Islamabad talks can deliver.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices bounced back slightly to $96.39 after dipping to a post-ceasefire low of $94.41. The ceasefire caused a brief fall because markets hoped the strait would reopen — but that hope faded quickly as it became clear the physical blockage (uncharted mines, inspection regime, no insurance) would not be resolved by a political announcement. Markets are now pricing in what analysts call a 'structural stalemate': oil prices will stay elevated because the physical problem is not going away. That means petrol, heating bills, and freight costs remain significantly higher than before the war started, regardless of which way the Islamabad talks go.

Sources:Al Jazeera
Mentions:Kpler →shadow fleet →Iran →Islamabad →Washington →International Crisis Group →Ali Vaez →Ana Subasic →Goldman Sachs →India →Brent Crude →General License U →Strait of Hormuz →
First Reported In

Update #65 · Iran lost its own minefield

Al Jazeera· 11 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low
The recovery implies fuel prices stay 40 to 60 per cent above pre-war levels regardless of which diplomatic scenario plays out, locking in an inflation floor across fuel-import-dependent economies.
Led to
Brent holds at $95 as markets wait
Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.
Occurred 12 Apr 2026
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