The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) stated that mines remain in the Strait of Hormuz and that the waterway "will never return to its previous status." Commercial traffic sits at roughly 8.0% of the pre-war daily baseline: Kpler data shows 5 to 11 transits per day against a pre-war norm of 120 to 140 .
More than 600 vessels, including 325 oil tankers, remain stranded inside the Gulf, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Iran is vetting each vessel individually before granting passage, a process that analysts expect will cap throughput at 10 to 15 ships per day even if the vetting posture loosens. At that rate, clearing the backlog alone would take weeks.
The IRGC's language is worth parsing carefully. "Will never return" is not a negotiating position; it is a declaration of a new permanent status. It aligns with Iran's Islamabad proposal, which sought to impose fees on every vessel passing through the strait, reportedly $1 to $2 million per ship. If formalised, that would create a precedent for every maritime chokepoint globally.
For consumers, the blockade's persistence translates directly. Roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil that normally passes through Hormuz is absent from global supply. Oxford Economics projects that disruption will cut world GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points in 2026. That cost is accumulating daily while the strait stays effectively closed.
