13MAR

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

2 min read

04:41UTC

Brent crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April. Markets are pricing the structural stalemate, not resolution.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Markets are pricing the ceasefire as a ceiling on disruption, not a floor under relief.

Brent Crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning 11 April, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April . The recovery reflects market pricing of the structural stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

The Kpler-projected ceiling of 10 to 15 Hormuz transits per day implies persistent spot-market tightness. Pre-war daily throughput was 120 to 140. Insurance markets will continue pricing transit at war-risk premiums until a credible mine-clearance timeline emerges, which will not happen inside the current diplomatic format. For households in fuel-import-dependent economies, the ceasefire has not yet lowered pump prices, and the physics of the strait suggests it will not do so on any timeline the Islamabad talks can deliver.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices bounced back slightly to $96.39 after dipping to a post-ceasefire low of $94.41. The ceasefire caused a brief fall because markets hoped the strait would reopen — but that hope faded quickly as it became clear the physical blockage (uncharted mines, inspection regime, no insurance) would not be resolved by a political announcement. Markets are now pricing in what analysts call a 'structural stalemate': oil prices will stay elevated because the physical problem is not going away. That means petrol, heating bills, and freight costs remain significantly higher than before the war started, regardless of which way the Islamabad talks go.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

At $96.39, Brent remains 43% above its $67.41 pre-war baseline. The Goldman Sachs $90 Q2 forecast implies a modest further softening if the ceasefire holds, but the $100+ trigger if Hormuz stays restricted is the operative scenario given the Kpler 10-15 transit ceiling.

Insurance is the transmission mechanism the price level rarely discusses: war-risk premiums for Hormuz transit are currently 0.5-1.5% of vessel value per voyage — roughly $3-9 million per VLCC transit versus near-zero pre-war. Those premiums are borne by cargo owners and passed to refinery buyers, creating a structural floor on refined product prices in Europe and Asia independent of the headline Brent number.

Consensus view: Goldman Sachs (Q2 forecast $90 with $100+ flagged if Hormuz remains restricted) and Kpler's Ana Subasic both price the recovery as market acknowledgement of a structural stalemate, not diplomatic progress. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group observed that the US 'handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption' — a permanent Hormuz toll infrastructure the ceasefire has not removed .

Counter-view: Arab Center Washington DC analysts note that the shadow fleet volume that built during pre-war Iranian sanctions has partially decoupled Gulf crude from Brent pricing for Chinese and Indian end-buyers: the Brent price premium overstates the supply disruption for two-thirds of pre-war Hormuz volume by buyer geography.

Key tension: Whether Brent's $94-97 range represents a sustainable war-stalemate equilibrium or an unstable ceiling that collapses if GL-U lapse on 19 April triggers a fresh insurance market withdrawal.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:Kpler →shadow fleet →Iran →Islamabad →Washington →International Crisis Group →Ali Vaez →Ana Subasic →Goldman Sachs →India →Brent Crude →General License U →Strait of Hormuz →

First Reported In

Update #65 · Iran lost its own minefield

Al Jazeera· 11 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

The recovery implies fuel prices stay 40 to 60 per cent above pre-war levels regardless of which diplomatic scenario plays out, locking in an inflation floor across fuel-import-dependent economies.

Led to

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.

Occurred 12 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

IAEA

Director General Rafael Grossi appeared in person at the UNSC on 19 May and warned that a direct hit on an operating reactor 'could result in very high release of radioactivity'. The session produced a condemnation record but no resolution, and the Barakah perimeter was already struck on 17 May.

Hengaw (Kurdish rights monitor)

Hengaw documented three judicial executions and the detention of Kurdish writer Majid Karimi in Tehran on 19 May, establishing Khorasan Razavi province as the newest geography in Iran's wartime judicial record. The organisation's Norway-based operation continues to surface a domestic repression track running in parallel with every diplomatic and military development.

India

Six India-flagged vessels conducted a coordinated cluster transit under PGSA bilateral assurances during the 17 May window, paying no yuan tolls. New Delhi's inclusion in Iran's state-to-state passage track insulates Indian energy supply without requiring endorsement of the PGSA's yuan-toll architecture or alignment with the US coalition.

Pakistan

Pakistan is the only functioning diplomatic bridge between Tehran and Washington. Its role is relay, not mediation in the settlement sense: it conveyed Iran's 10-point counter-MOU in early May, relayed the US rejection, and is now passing 'corrective points' in the third documented exchange of this sub-cycle without either side working from a shared text.

UK and France (Northwood coalition)

Twenty-six coalition members have published no rules of engagement eight days after the Bahrain joint statement; Lloyd's underwriters have conditioned war-risk reopening on written ROE from either Iran or the coalition. Italian and French mine-countermeasures deployments are operating on the in-water clearance task CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper's 90% mine-stockpile claim does not address.

Saudi Arabia

Riyadh has not publicly commented on the Barakah strike or the 50-47 discharge vote. Saudi output feeds the IEA's $106 base case; the $5 Brent premium above that model reflects institutional uncertainty no Gulf producer can compress through supply adjustment alone.