Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Iran Conflict 2026
5MAR

Trump waives Graham Act's Russia tariffs

4 min read
09:10UTC

Donald Trump's 16 October order sets a 500% duty on Russian goods and 100% on Moscow's biggest oil customers, then waives both in the same text.

ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Trump waived the Graham Act's tariffs without a single demand of Moscow.

Donald Trump signed the executive order Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on 16 October, two days before the Act's 18 October trigger date⁠1. He had signed the Act itself in September. The order's second section sets a 500% duty increase on Russian goods⁠2. It also sets 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas that make new purchases from 18 October, and on the five largest facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion.

Section 4 then waives those duties and most of the Act's sanctions under section 115(a), the Act's national-interest waiver⁠3. A certification and report went to Congress under section 115(b). The order names no ceasefire, no talks and no other Russian condition. China and India, the largest buyers of Russian crude, face no Graham Act tariff, and Washington never collected any of the duties.

Section 4(d) keeps the waiver in force until the President or the Secretary of State decides otherwise⁠4. The duties can therefore be imposed without a new vote in Congress, which turns the Act's tariff on Russia's biggest customers into a standing threat held by the executive alone. Defenders of the order can point out that Congress wrote the waiver into section 115 itself. The 16 October order leaves existing Russia sanctions untouched; those rest on a separate national emergency order.

The order lands a week after the US Treasury licensed Russian diesel under General License 135, a sanctions exemption that also allows imports into the United States, and after Moscow began lifting its own export curbs. A cargo of about 40,000 tonnes of diesel loaded at the Baltic port of Primorsk on 13 October and sailed for Morocco, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) shipping data reported by Reuters⁠5. The same day, the Kremlin readout of Vladimir Putin's call with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), described the diesel supplies as "the agreements reached" in Putin's call with Trump⁠6.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Congress passed a law in September that was meant to punish Russia and the countries that buy its oil and gas. It allowed huge import taxes: 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from Russia's biggest customers. On 16 October President Trump signed an order that imposes those taxes and then pauses them straight away. The law lets a president do that if he says it is in the national interest. So nobody pays the taxes for now. The president or the Secretary of State can end the pause whenever they choose.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The Act's own design put the decision in The White House. Section 115(a) lets the President waive on a national-interest finding, and section 115(b) asks only for a certification and a report, so the House's 262-159 vote and the Senate's 86-11 vote set the duties without a way to force them.

The Act's targets are also Washington's trading partners. A 100% duty on the five largest buyers of Russian crude and gas would fall on the economies that keep Russian barrels moving, and a tariff on them carries a cost for US importers the moment it is collected.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Buyers of Russian crude in India, China and Turkey keep buying, but face a tariff that one US official can impose without notice.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    A sanctions statute passed by large majorities in both chambers can have its duties and most of its sanctions waived within a month of signature, with only a report to Congress.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Consequence

    Russian diesel exports through Primorsk can rise towards Novak's year-end target with no US penalty on the buyers.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #29 · Trump waives his own 500% Russia tariffs

The White House· 17 Oct 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency
G7 members agreed on 2 October to release up to 100 million barrels through the IEA over four months, front-loading diesel.
China
China
China signed the 15 October text reaffirming the Resolution 2216 arms embargo on the Houthis. The Wall Street Journal reported that Conflict Armament Research found Chinese parts in a Houthi copy of Iran's Kheibarshekan missile.
Russia
Russia
Russia joined the 15 October consensus condemning the Houthis, a month after vetoing a mandate for a UN panel of experts on Iran sanctions on 17 September. One Western official told Bloomberg that Moscow is providing Iran with missiles, and the White House rejected the assessment.
India
India
National Security Adviser Ajit Doval raised seafarer safety with Mohsen Rezaei on 12 October, after a drone hit the Petro Dolphin with 11 Indians aboard at Sohar. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar urged that attacks on commercial shipping and seafarers be avoided.
Lebanon
Lebanon
President Joseph Aoun met UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix in Beirut on 14 October as UNIFIL winds down before its mandate ends on 31 December. Two days later Qatar's prime minister pledged in Beirut to fund a solar plant for Lebanon.
Kataib Hezbollah
Kataib Hezbollah
The militia announced a halt to operations except against "hostile aircraft" and denied any disarmament deal with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. A day later Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani urged eliminating "remaining traces of the US presence in other arenas".

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.