US diesel topped $5 per gallon on 17 March — up 34% since the war began on 28 February1. Petrol averaged $3.79 per gallon, a 27% increase and the highest price since October 2023. Brent Crude closed at $100.21, down from the previous Friday's $103.14 but still 49% above the pre-war baseline of $67.41.
The Brent pullback from its war-high of $106.18 on 15 March has not reached consumer fuel prices, which typically lag crude by one to two weeks. Diesel's steeper rise — 34% against petrol's 27% — reflects the fuel's sensitivity to supply disruptions: middle distillate markets tighten faster when refining and export capacity is removed from the system. The IEA declared this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with Gulf production down at least 10 million barrels per day.
The projections compound the current pain. Chatham House assessed that if the conflict persists for months, Brent could reach $130 and the Eurozone would 'probably' contract in Q22. CSIS calculated Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day3. The IISS characterised the conflict as at risk of becoming a 'battle of endurance'4. Trump told NBC that Iran is ready for a deal but 'the terms aren't good enough yet'5 — a position that faces a daily test at $5 diesel, with Deutsche Bank and Oxford Economics already warning of Stagflation in the second and third quarters.
