Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
European Tech Sovereignty
3JUN

Iran charts Hormuz with formal PGSA coordinates

4 min read
10:43UTC

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority published the formal coordinates of its Hormuz controlled zone on 20 May: eastern boundary from Kuh-e Mubarak to Fujairah, western boundary from Qeshm to Umm Al-Quwain, with all vessels inside required to obtain authorisation.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

Once coordinates are published, neighbours and underwriters must respond on paper or accept by silence. Tehran has forced that choice.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA, the Iranian maritime body administering the toll architecture) published the formal coordinates of its "controlled maritime zone" on Wednesday 20 May 1. The eastern boundary runs from Kuh-e Mubarak on the Iranian coast to southern Fujairah in the UAE; the western boundary runs from the tip of Qeshm Island in Iran to Umm Al-Quwain in the UAE. All vessels inside the zone, per the Iran International notice, must coordinate with the authority and obtain authorisation. PGSA has opened its vessel-submission portal four days earlier and is still withholding the fee schedule it promised .

The coordinates convert what had been operational practice and the Majlis's earlier toll bill into a cartographic-legal claim. Verbal declarations of authority can be walked back; published coordinates cannot, because they trigger a written obligation on neighbours and flag states. The United Arab Emirates has not, as of writing, published a counter-coordinate set, which leaves Emirati silence as a maritime-law response.

The insurance consequence runs through Lloyd's of London. Until Wednesday, underwriters had a verbal toll claim and a portal whose fee schedule remained unwritten. With coordinates on a chart, the boundary can be modelled: tanker routes can be plotted against the zone, war-risk premium tiers can be drawn against entry and exit lines, and the structural insurance layer Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley flagged on 12 May now has the cartographic input it needs to price.

Tehran chose to publish coordinates while withholding the fee, and the asymmetry reads as deliberate. The chart converts the zone into a legal fact; the missing fee preserves Iranian discretion over what compliance actually costs. Flag states and underwriters now have to accept or reject the cartography on paper, while Tehran retains the room to set the price later.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority published precise GPS-style boundary coordinates for the maritime zone it says it controls at the Strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes. Before this, Iran had made verbal statements claiming it had authority over ships passing through. Publishing exact coordinates is a significant step up: it creates a written, mappable boundary that other countries and shipping companies now have to formally respond to or ignore on the record. Iran is saying: all ships inside this zone need to get our permission. It has not yet published what it will charge for that permission, which appears deliberate; Iran gets the legal claim on paper while keeping flexibility on the price. Shipping insurers and naval commanders now have a specific map they must account for, even if they do not accept its legal validity.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    Flag states that do not publish formal counter-coordinates within 90 days risk having their silence interpreted as acquiescence under customary international law. The UAE, as a state whose own coastline provides two of the PGSA zone's four boundary reference points, faces the most immediate pressure to respond on paper.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Consequence

    Lloyd's of London underwriters now have the cartographic input needed to model war-risk premiums against specific vessel entry and exit points in the declared zone. The coordinate publication enables tiered premium structures; vessels transiting the zone pay a higher premium than vessels skirting the boundary; which partially implements the insurance-layer effect of the PGSA architecture without Iranian enforcement.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    The withheld fee schedule creates a second-stage legal moment: when PGSA publishes its tariff, flag states and Rubio's 'completely illegal' position will face a concrete enforcement test. The coordinate publication without a fee is a deliberate staging that preserves Iranian discretion on timing.

    Short term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #105 · Khamenei keeps the uranium; House pulls the vote

Iran International· 22 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
European Central Bank
European Central Bank
The ECB's digital euro pilot drew more than 50 PSP applications and is naming 10 to 30 participants in July, advancing on its own monetary mandate without requiring a Commission act. Its trajectory this week is the inverse of CAIDA's: the sovereignty instrument that restricts no US firm is the only one keeping its published calendar.
United States (Ambassador Andrew Puzder / Steptoe LLP)
United States (Ambassador Andrew Puzder / Steptoe LLP)
Puzder named CAIDA a red line inconsistent with the EU-US trade framework on 25 May; Steptoe warns US firms spend up to USD 50bn a year on DMA and DSA compliance and that CAIDA's Buy European tilt threatens the Turnberry truce. The Google fine delay is read in Washington as evidence that Commission enforcement bends to diplomatic pressure.
France (G7 chair and Mistral AI)
France (G7 chair and Mistral AI)
France chaired the 29 May G7 Bercy ministerial and produced a communique that omitted cloud sovereignty entirely, while its national AI champion Mistral won five-year Airbus and BMW engineering contracts commercially the day before. Paris is advancing sovereignty through the market and retreating on it at every multilateral table.
Germany (federal government)
Germany (federal government)
Berlin maintained College silence that forced CAIDA's scope to public-sector tenders, protecting the automotive sector from a US Section 301 claim while simultaneously allowing BMW to contract Mistral for safety-critical crash-simulation work. German corporate procurement and German trade policy are running in opposite directions.
Netherlands (minister Willemijn Aerdts)
Netherlands (minister Willemijn Aerdts)
Aerdts blocked Kyndryl's EUR 100m Solvinity acquisition on 26 May, the first US deal ever stopped under Dutch screening, on the specific ground that the US CLOUD Act could compel disclosure of DigiD and MijnOverheid data. The decision is a direct demonstration that national screening achieves CAIDA's public-sector objective without waiting for EU law.
European Commission
European Commission
The Commission is presenting CAIDA adoption on its fourth scheduled date as a sovereignty milestone, with Henna Virkkunen due to brief the Telecom Council on 9 June. The narrowed public-sector-only scope is the concession written in to secure adoption; whether the Commission presents it as a floor or a ceiling for future revision is the open question.