23JUL

Putin offers November talks, aide says

3 min read

19:31UTC

Yuri Ushakov said Putin told Steve Witkoff on 21 October that Russia is ready in principle to resume talks with the US and Ukraine around 10 November.

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Key takeaway

The Kremlin named a rough date for renewed talks while pressing its diesel trade with Washington.

Vladimir Putin told Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, on 21 October that Russia is "in principle" ready to resume talks with the US and Ukraine "around the 10th of November". That is the account of Putin's foreign-policy aide Yuri Ushakov in the Kremlin's readout⁠¹. The two met for nearly three hours at the Constantine Palace in St Petersburg, Putin's ninth meeting with US representatives. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and fellow envoy, joined by video.

The date falls after the end-of-October window Washington had wanted, set after the one-day Miami round with Kyiv's delegation. Ushakov blamed Ukrainian strikes on the main voting day of Russia's Duma elections for wrecking an earlier resumption. When Witkoff and Kushner last saw Putin in September, neither side announced a result; this time the Kremlin published a date.

Ushakov said "a significant part" of the conversation covered Russian diesel for the US and world markets, agreed in the 9 October Putin-Trump call. He said "practical work ... has already begun" since Washington lifted some diesel sanctions. Other "large joint economic projects" are "nearing the implementation stage", he added, naming none.

Ushakov said Putin had pardoned Stephen Hubbard, a US citizen held in Russia, who was handed to Witkoff at Pulkovo Airport. Putin thanked Melania Trump for mediation over occupied Oleshky and the return of Ukrainian children, five days after the Pope raised the town's civilians with him. In the same readout, Ushakov said Russian forces are destroying military-industrial, energy and logistics facilities in Ukraine "as a retaliatory measure", extending the campaign against Ukraine's interregional power lines.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war continues. The US, under President Donald Trump, is trying to broker an end to it. Steve Witkoff is Trump's special envoy. He flew to see Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, in St Petersburg. Yuri Ushakov is Putin's foreign-policy aide, and he gave Russia's account of the meeting. Ushakov said peace talks could restart in early November. He also said the two men spent a lot of time on selling Russian diesel, the fuel used by lorries and farm machinery, to the US. The US had relaxed some sanctions, the trade penalties it imposed on Russia, to allow this.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Russia's diesel offer depends on a domestic surplus the Kremlin controls by decree. Russia extended its producer diesel export ban to 31 October, then partially eased it from 10 October, allowing 500,000 tonnes at that stage, so any supply for the US comes from volumes Moscow chooses to release, a tap it can open or close.

No ceasefire mechanism exists apart from a full settlement. Zelenskyy's offer to swap refinery strikes for grid strikes found no taker, so each side's attacks on the other's energy system set the bargaining terms between rounds.

Escalation

Mixed. A talks date is pencilled in for around 10 November, but the same readout describes continuing Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy and logistics as retaliation. The diplomatic track is waiting while the strike campaign continues on both sides.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A trade track between Moscow and Washington can now advance on its own timetable, separate from the Ukraine negotiations.
Short term · Assessed
Risk
If the November round slips again, Kyiv faces a US partner already drawing an economic benefit from engagement with Moscow.
Medium term · Assessed
Precedent
A presidential pardon handed over at an airport during an envoy visit sets a pattern of humanitarian gestures packaged with business talks.
Short term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In May 1972 Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev paired the SALT I arms accord with a grain purchase and a trade agreement signed that October, so commerce rewarded Moscow for movement on security.

Counter-parallel: Congress then passed the Jackson-Vanik amendment in the Trade Act of 1974, tying trade benefits to Soviet emigration, and Moscow repudiated the 1972 trade agreement in January 1975. A legislature overrode an executive's linkage, much as the Graham Act sits behind any waiver Trump grants today.

Immediate: General License 135 allows Russian-origin diesel to be sold into and imported by the US until 7 April 2027. Ushakov's claim that "practical work" has begun implies cargoes are moving, but no US agency has published volumes.

Structural: On Lowdown's reading, direct sales let Russia capture the refining margin now earned by Indian and Gulf refiners that turn Russian crude into diesel for Western buyers. That shifts revenue from intermediaries to Russian state-linked producers.

Consensus view: One reading of the readout is that the Kremlin offers Washington commercial side-deals to build a bilateral track that does not wait on Ukraine. Diesel trade under General License 135 gives Trump an early dividend while the talks date moves into November.

Counter-view: Another reading is that Moscow wants economic normalisation with the US as a goal in itself, because a lasting channel to Washington would outlive any Ukraine deal.

Key tension: Whether US diesel purchases give Moscow leverage over the timing of talks, or give Washington a lever it can pull by letting the licence lapse in April 2027.

First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

Kremlin· 22 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

OFAC opens US market to Russian diesel

Ushakov said practical work on Russian diesel supplies began after OFAC licensed Russian diesel.

Occurred 9 Oct 2026

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Witkoff's Miami talks end a day early

Moscow named a November date after the one-day Miami round left the end-October window unmet.

Occurred 9 Oct 2026

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Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin with no result

Witkoff's September meeting with Putin ended without an announced result; this one produced a Kremlin date.

Occurred 5 Sept 2026

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Russian strikes cut Ukraine's grid links

Ushakov said Russia keeps destroying energy and logistics facilities in Ukraine as retaliation.

Occurred 10 Oct 2026

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Zelenskyy talks guarantees with US envoy

Witkoff briefed Putin on the Oslo talks and carried their security guarantee paper to him.

Occurred 20 Oct 2026

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This Event

Putin offers November talks, aide says

The Kremlin's readout put a date on renewed three-way talks, later than the end-of-October window Washington wanted.

Led to

Beijing will not confirm Shenzhen summit

Mao Ning said Beijing had no information on the Shenzhen meeting Ushakov announced.

Occurred 22 Oct 2026

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Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.