23JUL

Beijing will not confirm Shenzhen summit

2 min read

19:31UTC

The Kremlin says a Russia-China-US leaders' meeting at November's APEC summit in Shenzhen is being prepared; China's foreign ministry says it has no information.

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EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

Moscow announced a Shenzhen leaders' meeting that Beijing will not confirm.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on 21 October that a meeting of the Russian, Chinese and US leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen in November "has not been rejected by any of the capitals". He said China is handling the preparations⁠¹. Asked by Agence France-Presse (AFP) on 21 October and by Reuters on 22 October, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said she had no information on such a meeting⁠².

Bloomberg and Kyodo put the same question on 19 and 20 October and got no substantive answer. Putin told Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who visited the Constantine Palace on the day of the Witkoff meeting, that he and Xi Jinping had met three times this year⁠³.

Washington's track has so far run as separate rounds with each side, most recently envoy talks with Ukrainian officials in Miami. Zelenskyy said on 20 October that any US-China-Russia talks on Ukraine are acceptable to Kyiv only with Ukraine in the room⁠⁴. Lowdown found no statement from Moscow or Washington accepting that condition. On Lowdown's reading, naming China moves the settlement towards a three-power format, and Ukraine's seat would then rest on Zelenskyy's demand alone.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia, China and the US are the three largest military powers. Russia says their leaders, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, might meet in November in Shenzhen, a city in southern China. The meeting would happen on the sidelines of a regional summit of Asia-Pacific economies. China is hosting that summit this year. China has not confirmed any such meeting. Its foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, said she had no information. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says any talks about Ukraine must include Ukraine.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

China is Russia's largest trading partner, so Beijing already holds leverage over Moscow's war economy without a summit. A public peacemaking role would make that leverage visible to Washington and Brussels, which is why Beijing guards any announcement.

Hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit gives Xi control of protocol and the guest list in Shenzhen. A trilateral there would run on Chinese ground under Chinese rules, a reason for Moscow to name it first and for Beijing to stay quiet.

What could happen next?

Risk
A three-power meeting without Ukraine would repeat the pattern Kyiv fears most: its borders discussed in its absence.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Ukraine (includes Ukraine state media)

Ukraine

Primary parallel: At Yalta in February 1945 Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin settled Poland's borders and government with no Polish representative present. The Polish government-in-exile in London rejected the result, and the settlement held by force for more than four decades.

Counter-parallel: At Dayton in November 1995 the US hosted the presidents of Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia themselves. The accord they initialled has kept the peace in Bosnia for three decades.

Consensus view: One reading is that Beijing avoids being seen as co-owner of Russia's war, because its trade with Europe and the US outweighs its stake in Ukraine's outcome. Public silence on a trilateral fits that pattern.

Counter-view: Beijing's own documents point elsewhere. Its February 2023 12-point position paper and the May 2024 China-Brazil "common understandings" call for a peace conference that both Russia and Ukraine accept, so the silence may protect a host role rather than signal refusal.

Key tension: Whether Moscow announced the meeting to lock Beijing into a format before Beijing had chosen one.

First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

Kremlin· 22 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Putin offers November talks, aide says

Mao Ning said Beijing had no information on the Shenzhen meeting Ushakov announced.

Occurred 21 Oct 2026

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This Event

Beijing will not confirm Shenzhen summit

A three-power format on Ukraine would rest on Chinese hosting that Beijing has not acknowledged and on a Ukrainian seat nobody else has promised.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.