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EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

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13:33UTC

Terminal stocks funded the marginal molecule into pipeline storage as Atlantic cargoes kept missing the basin.

← Back to TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range Jump to analysis ↓

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Key takeaway

Terminal stocks are now the marginal supplier; the buffer is finite and shrinking.

Gas Infrastructure Europe's ALSI (Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory, the terminal-stocks companion to AGSI+) showed aggregate EU terminal inventory falling from 5,929 thousand tonnes on 10 April to 5,766 thousand tonnes on 13 April, a draw of 163 kt over three days ¹. Daily send-out averaged 4,348 GWh, with no evident new cargo arrivals landing in the window.

Around a dozen Atlantic LNG cargoes had already diverted to Asia since early March , compressing the JKM-TTF spread to near parity and removing the arbitrage that would ordinarily pull reload cargoes back into European terminals. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan force majeure takes out the other direction of flexible supply. With Atlantic inflow thin and Qatari inflow blocked, terminal buffer is the only variable left, and it is being drawn at roughly 50 kt per day to keep pipeline send-out steady.

That dynamic has a short runway. ALSI carries finite stock, and drawing it during peak reload season means Europe enters May with a thinner LNG cushion against any late-April supply shock. With the Russian LNG cutoff arriving on 25 April and no replacement supply publicly named, the buffer question becomes a May question rather than a June one.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

LNG, liquefied natural gas, arrives at European ports as a super-cooled liquid in specialised tankers. It is stored at coastal terminals before being sent inland through pipelines as regular gas. Think of the terminals as the first link in the chain between ships arriving from Qatar, the US, or Nigeria, and the heating systems of European homes. Between 10 and 13 April, EU terminals collectively drew down their stocks by 163,000 tonnes in three days, and no new tankers appear to have docked to refill them. That is because LNG ships have been diverting from Europe to Asia, where buyers are paying slightly more. European terminals were funding their pipeline obligations by drawing on reserves, not new deliveries.

What could happen next?

Risk
The Russian LNG ban on 25 April removes a portion of the terminal replenishment flow while injection season demand for send-out rises, accelerating the terminal drawdown rate beyond the current 54 kt/day.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

At 4,348 GWh/day send-out and 5,766 kt inventory, EU terminals hold approximately 8.4 days of buffer. A 163 kt three-day drawdown represents a daily depletion rate of 54 kt without replacement. At that rate, terminals would fall below operational minimums (roughly 3,000 kt) in approximately 52 days if no new cargoes arrived, which is implausible but illustrates the directional pressure.

The structural constraint is the JKM-TTF spread: at USD 0.10/MMBtu parity, no flexible cargo operator has a price incentive to choose Europe over Asia. A EUR 42/MWh TTF translates to roughly USD 15.4/MMBtu, while Japanese LNG spot was trading at approximately USD 15.5/MMBtu. The 10-cent spread is below the routing cost differential between Atlantic-to-Europe and Cape-of-Good-Hope-to-Japan, making Europe effectively uncompetitive for swing cargoes until TTF rises or Asian demand softens.

Consensus view: S&P Global Commodity Insights LNG analysts assess that a three-day terminal drawdown with no evident new cargo arrivals is the signature of a supply hiatus, not a demand surge. When the JKM-TTF spread narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu , US and Nigerian operators holding flexible cargoes diverted to Asia, where committed long-term offtakers were paying premiums to recover from Hormuz supply loss.

Counter-view: GIIGNL (the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers) notes that European terminal operators routinely hold 5-7 days of send-out buffer above operational minimums, and 5,766 kt represents roughly 8 days of current send-out. The terminal estate is not in distress; it is operating at the bottom of its working range.

Key tension: Whether the 8-day buffer is adequate once the Russian LNG ban removes approximately 17 bcm per year from 25 April, cutting the replenishment flow precisely when injection season demand for send-out is rising.

Sources:Gas Infrastructure Europe

Mentions:GIE ALSI →European Union →Liquefied Natural Gas →QatarEnergy →Qatar →TTF →JKM →Nigeria →Russia →Ras Laffan Industrial City →GIE AGSI+ →Gas Infrastructure Europe →Russian LNG short-term contract ban →

First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

Gas Infrastructure Europe· 15 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

European Commission

Commissioner Jorgensen formally acknowledged the post-Russia energy security framework cannot absorb the LNG shock, cutting the mandatory storage target from 90% to 80% and explicitly warning that normalisation is not foreseeable even with immediate peace. The Commission is now dependent on coordinated member state LNG purchasing and demand flexibility to bridge the remaining gap.

Germany

Germany holds the EU's largest storage estate but entered injection season at 23.32% fill with a 4.3 TWh/day injection ceiling that physically prevents any sprint recovery; the Bundeswirtschaftsministerium has maintained its early warning stage since July 2025. An escalation to Alarmstufe, which would trigger compulsory injection obligations, remains live if storage fails to rise through April.

QatarEnergy

QatarEnergy declared force majeure on European LNG contracts citing Ras Laffan strike damage, while the Gulf Research Centre assessed the declaration may also reflect a commercial decision to reallocate volumes toward higher-priced Asian spot markets without triggering breach penalties. Independent engineering confirmation of damage extent has not been published, leaving legal and commercial uncertainty unresolved.

Equinor / Norway

Norway remains the EU's largest pipeline gas supplier and benefits from sustained elevated TTF; Norwegian pipeline capacity has partially offset the Russian supply loss but cannot close the structural gap. Norway Zone 4 power prices at EUR 2/MWh on 13 April illustrate how hydro-dominated systems are structurally decoupled from the gas price shock affecting continental Europe.

Italy

Italy cleared day-ahead power at EUR 133/MWh on 13 April, four to five times the Iberian equivalent, because gas-fired plants set the marginal price for approximately 90% of generation hours. Italy's circa 40 GW of gas-fired CCGT capacity, built when gas was cheap and nuclear was politically blocked, is now a structural liability at EUR 47/MWh TTF.

Spain

Spain cleared at EUR 29/MWh on the same day Italy paid EUR 133/MWh, the starkest single-day demonstration that its renewable energy investment is translating directly into price shock insulation for industry. Iberian interconnector constraints at the Pyrenees mean Spain cannot export this advantage to northern European markets at scale.