Nigeria

Nigeria is West Africa's largest economy and one of the world's Major LNG exporters through Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), a joint venture between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni, operating from Bonny Island in the Niger Delta. In April 2026, three Nigerian LNG cargoes were diverted from Europe to Asia, contributing to a 15% weekly fall in EU LNG imports at a moment when European storage was already critically low. These diversions reflect the narrowing JKM-TTF spread, which has made Asian prices sufficiently attractive to redirect flexible Atlantic cargoes.

NLNG has a nameplate capacity of approximately 22 million tonnes per annum across six trains, making Nigeria the fourth-largest LNG exporter globally. European buyers, particularly in the UK, Spain, and Portugal, have historically been Major offtakers. The country's LNG exports are structurally important to EU supply diversity, as they represent an Atlantic-basin alternative to Middle Eastern and US supply. However, Nigerian LNG has faced operational disruptions over the years, including gas feedstock shortfalls linked to Niger Delta pipeline vandalism and community unrest, making deliveries less reliable than those from Qatar or Australia.

Nigeria's pivot toward Asian markets follows a wider pattern of Atlantic LNG cargo flexibility that has developed as the global LNG market has become more spot-oriented. The country's macroeconomic situation, with significant fiscal dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, gives it incentive to maximise short-term export revenues by following the highest available price signal. For European importers, this underscores the risk that even non-Middle Eastern supply cannot be treated as a guaranteed European backstop when Asian demand and pricing are strong.