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European Energy Markets
13APR

Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia

3 min read
22:33UTC

Vessel tracking shows Europe losing the cargo-by-cargo competition with Asian buyers, as the JKM-TTF spread collapses to near zero.

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Key takeaway

The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu erases Europe's cost advantage for attracting flexible LNG cargoes.

Kpler vessel tracking data shows eight Atlantic LNG cargoes (five US-origin, three Nigerian) have been diverted from Europe to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope since the conflict began in late February. EU weekly LNG imports fell 15% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result.

Behind the diversions sits the JKM-TTF spread, the gap between Asian spot LNG and the European benchmark. It narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu in early April, effectively zero. When the spread was positive, Europe could outbid Asia for flexible cargoes; at parity, shippers route to whichever buyer offers better terms on a cargo-by-cargo basis. US LNG still accounts for 58% of EU LNG imports under long-term contracts, but spot volumes follow the Asian premium.

Kpler's broader supply arithmetic is tight. Alternative sources cover under two million of the monthly shortfall. That gap persists until Ras Laffan repairs advance or new US export capacity comes online, Europe competes for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe normally imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and West Africa, shipped across the Atlantic Ocean. Eight of those tanker ships have recently been redirected to Asia instead. This is happening because Asian countries are currently paying similar prices to Europe for gas. When there is no significant price advantage for coming to Europe, shipping companies and traders route cargoes to wherever their contracts or logistics make most sense, which right now is Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cargo diversions reflect a structural feature of global LNG contracts: portfolio LNG suppliers (Shell, TotalEnergies, BP) who purchase US LNG under long-term HH-indexed contracts and resell it on the spot market optimise delivery destinations quarterly, not in real time. Once a diversion decision is made and a vessel is en route via Cape of Good Hope, that cargo is effectively committed for 6-8 weeks regardless of subsequent TTF movements.

The five US-origin cargoes in the diversions are almost certainly portfolio volumes from Shell's Sabine Pass offtake or TotalEnergies' Sabine Pass Train 5 contracts. These companies have explicit Asian portfolio commitments that take precedence over spot European sales when Asian demand is elevated.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The near-zero JKM-TTF spread removes Europe's primary market mechanism for attracting flexible spot LNG cargoes, making any further supply disruption directly additive to the storage deficit.

  • Opportunity

    A Hormuz normalisation that resumes Middle East LNG flows could widen the JKM-TTF spread in Europe's favour within weeks, attracting Atlantic cargoes back and accelerating injection season recovery.

Sources:Kpler·OilPrice.com
Mentions:Kpler →European Union →Japan →South Korea →Bloomberg →Cape of Good Hope →Prima →Qatar →Nigeria →United States →Ras Laffan Industrial City →JKM →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's thinnest gas cushion since 2018

Kpler· 13 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia
The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu eliminates Europe's traditional price premium for attracting flexible cargoes, turning every spot cargo into a bidding contest.
Led to
Russian LNG ban lands 25 April, no replacement named
Atlantic LNG cargo diversions to Asia (now close to a dozen) compound the supply gap created by the Russian LNG ban with no European replacement supply named.
Occurred 15 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
EU carbon and storage regulators
EU carbon and storage regulators
EUA carbon broke EUR 81/tonne on 13 July as the ETS Market Stability Reserve's scheduled withdrawals met fresh fuel-switching demand from France's nuclear curtailment. Brussels' mandatory storage-fill rule kept German and French injection running regardless of the TTF swings, the mechanism working as designed four years after the 2022 shock.
Equinor
Equinor
Equinor returned its Asgard field from maintenance on 11 July, lifting Gassco's exit nominations to 319.8 mcm/day just as TTF round-tripped on Hormuz risk. The restart gave Norway spare pipeline capacity to help Europe absorb the gas rally without drawing down storage, reinforcing its role as the post-2022 swing supplier.
Germany
Germany
Germany briefly became the cheaper leg of the FR-DE spread on 12 July as French reactors went offline, while its own storage injection tripled to 723 GWh on 11 July under the EU's mandatory fill rule. Berlin's CCGT fleet absorbed the extra load at a time when EUA's climb past EUR 81 is raising its own marginal cost too.
EDF
EDF
EDF took Chooz, Golfech and Bugey fully offline on 12 July under river-cooling discharge limits, then secured a temperature exemption for Bugey to 20 July rather than wait for the rivers to cool. The government's willingness to relax the environmental ceiling shows French grid security now outweighs the permit breach when reactor hardware itself is undamaged.
Storage and injection-pace desk
Storage and injection-pace desk
EU storage sat at 51.1% on 8 July, still running below the pace needed for an 80% November target, and the JKM-TTF Asia premium of roughly USD 1.4-2.4/MMBtu was already pulling marginal cargoes east before Qatar's withdrawal compounded the gap. October's top-up remains the binding constraint, not this week's price level.
EDF / France
EDF / France
EDF added Chooz to its heat-curtailment watch list as a precaution against the second heat dome peaking 9-14 July, alongside standing warnings at Blayais, Bugey, Golfech and Saint-Alban. No output cut has been confirmed at any site as of 10 July.