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European Energy Markets
13APR

Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia

3 min read
22:33UTC

Vessel tracking shows Europe losing the cargo-by-cargo competition with Asian buyers, as the JKM-TTF spread collapses to near zero.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu erases Europe's cost advantage for attracting flexible LNG cargoes.

Kpler vessel tracking data shows eight Atlantic LNG cargoes (five US-origin, three Nigerian) have been diverted from Europe to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope since the conflict began in late February. EU weekly LNG imports fell 15% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result.

Behind the diversions sits the JKM-TTF spread, the gap between Asian spot LNG and the European benchmark. It narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu in early April, effectively zero. When the spread was positive, Europe could outbid Asia for flexible cargoes; at parity, shippers route to whichever buyer offers better terms on a cargo-by-cargo basis. US LNG still accounts for 58% of EU LNG imports under long-term contracts, but spot volumes follow the Asian premium.

Kpler's broader supply arithmetic is tight. Alternative sources cover under two million of the monthly shortfall. That gap persists until Ras Laffan repairs advance or new US export capacity comes online, Europe competes for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe normally imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and West Africa, shipped across the Atlantic Ocean. Eight of those tanker ships have recently been redirected to Asia instead. This is happening because Asian countries are currently paying similar prices to Europe for gas. When there is no significant price advantage for coming to Europe, shipping companies and traders route cargoes to wherever their contracts or logistics make most sense, which right now is Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cargo diversions reflect a structural feature of global LNG contracts: portfolio LNG suppliers (Shell, TotalEnergies, BP) who purchase US LNG under long-term HH-indexed contracts and resell it on the spot market optimise delivery destinations quarterly, not in real time. Once a diversion decision is made and a vessel is en route via Cape of Good Hope, that cargo is effectively committed for 6-8 weeks regardless of subsequent TTF movements.

The five US-origin cargoes in the diversions are almost certainly portfolio volumes from Shell's Sabine Pass offtake or TotalEnergies' Sabine Pass Train 5 contracts. These companies have explicit Asian portfolio commitments that take precedence over spot European sales when Asian demand is elevated.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The near-zero JKM-TTF spread removes Europe's primary market mechanism for attracting flexible spot LNG cargoes, making any further supply disruption directly additive to the storage deficit.

  • Opportunity

    A Hormuz normalisation that resumes Middle East LNG flows could widen the JKM-TTF spread in Europe's favour within weeks, attracting Atlantic cargoes back and accelerating injection season recovery.

Sources:Kpler·OilPrice.com
Mentions:Kpler →European Union →Japan →South Korea →Bloomberg →Cape of Good Hope →Prima →Qatar →Nigeria →United States →Ras Laffan Industrial City →JKM →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's thinnest gas cushion since 2018

Kpler· 13 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia
The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu eliminates Europe's traditional price premium for attracting flexible cargoes, turning every spot cargo into a bidding contest.
Led to
Russian LNG ban lands 25 April, no replacement named
Atlantic LNG cargo diversions to Asia (now close to a dozen) compound the supply gap created by the Russian LNG ban with no European replacement supply named.
Occurred 15 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Amsterdam-Rotterdam gas trading desks
Amsterdam-Rotterdam gas trading desks
TTF failing to sustain EUR 47+ with 51 mcm/day of Norwegian capacity offline confirms EUR 50 as a diplomatic ceiling; the curve is a Troll-restart long, and EBN's EUR 233 million mandate budget cap is a known limit on price-insensitive prompt buying.
ARERA
ARERA
Italy's energy regulator is running mandatory storage injection that carries the EU aggregate trajectory alongside CRE and EBN, while Italian industrial consumers at Panigaglia face a simultaneously low-utilisation terminal and a EUR 2/MWh delivered-cost basis above TTF. The mandate funds security of supply at the expense of Italian competitiveness.
Shell
Shell
As a long-term Russian LNG contract holder, Shell faces a replacement procurement problem concentrated in Q3-Q4 2026 ahead of the 1 January 2027 double cliff; with terminal booking lead times running weeks, the real deadline is late November 2026 and no replacement supply has been publicly named.
CRE
CRE
France's 100% mandatory booking order funds injection regardless of the inverted strip, providing the EU aggregate cover that Germany's abolished levy cannot; the CRE order is renewed annually, making it a political risk rather than a structural guarantee. That dependency exposes the EU injection trajectory to French electoral cycles.
Bundesnetzagentur
Bundesnetzagentur
Germany's regulator holds the early-warning gas stage active with no statutory instrument to compel commercial injection, and Berlin confirmed on 20 May it will introduce no summer incentive scheme; Germany is the EU's only major unincentivised storage market after the levy lapsed on 1 January 2026. The mandate gap is carried by three other member states.
European Commission
European Commission
The Commission relaxed the mandatory fill target from 90% to 80% and published an ETS benchmark revision saving industry EUR 4 billion, choosing industrial competitiveness over both climate and storage ambition at the moment physical margins are tightest. Both decisions reduce policy pressure at the exact week the trajectory margin narrowed to 45 GWh/day.