Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
15JUN

Houthis take all of Yemen's Red Sea coast

3 min read
12:23UTC

Yemeni government officers and a Houthi official say the Houthis now hold the entire Yemeni Red Sea coastline, including Mayun island inside Bab al-Mandeb and the Hanish islands, after a week-long offensive.

← Back to TTF breaks the floor into the import banJump to analysis ↓
EconomicDeveloping

Yemeni government military officials said the Houthis hold the entirety of Yemen's Red Sea coastline after a week-long offensive, including the Yemeni side of Bab al-Mandeb and the Greater and Lesser Hanish Islands 1. A senior officer in Yemen's internationally recognised government and a Houthi official separately confirmed the capture of Mayun, the island inside the strait, in reporting published on Saturday 12 September 2026 2. The Houthis took the port of Mocha on 10 September in the same push 3.

Bab al-Mandeb separates Yemen, on the eastern shore, from Djibouti and Eritrea on the western, and links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Roughly 12 per cent of world seaborne trade moves through it 4. This week's gains drew no naval response, and Saudi Arabia announced a 43-nation maritime defence coalition covering the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden on 30 July, with thirteen founding members and no start date .

The crude that Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline delivers to the Red Sea has already stopped using this exit. Riyadh has loaded no crude for export through the strait since the Houthis declared their embargo on 23 July, sending Yanbu barrels north into the Suez Canal instead , and Egypt's Ain Sokhna terminal, the Red Sea inlet of the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, takes part of that rerouted volume . The drones hit the feed into Yanbu in the same week the southern exit changed hands, leaving one working route out of the Red Sea and a pipeline that is not pumping into it.

The analysts quoted by NPR read the Red Sea gains as fitting Iran's strategy of using allied pressure to keep oil and gas prices elevated 5. No source claims the two operations were coordinated, and the militias in Maysan and the Houthi forces on the coast answer to different commands.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Red Sea runs long and narrow, with a door at each end. The Suez Canal sits at the northern one. The southern door is Bab al-Mandeb, a strait about 30 kilometres wide between Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other. The Houthis are an armed movement that controls much of northern Yemen. Yemeni government officers now say the Houthis have taken the whole of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including the island of Mayun which sits in the middle of that southern door, and the port of Mocha. Roughly 12 per cent of everything shipped by sea travels through this strait. A single armed group now watches one entire side of it.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The Red Sea has two exits and no others. Ships leave north through the Suez Canal or south through Bab al-Mandeb, and a cargo that can use neither goes the long way round the Cape of Good Hope.

That geometry is what makes the southern strait worth taking. Yemen holds the eastern shore, Djibouti and Eritrea the western, and the island of Mayun sits in the passage between them.

Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export plan already lost the southern exit before the ground changed hands. Riyadh stopped loading crude for export through the strait when the Houthis declared their embargo on 23 July , which left Yanbu barrels dependent on the northern exit through Suez .

Escalation

Up. Saudi Arabia announced a 43-nation maritime coalition for this water on 30 July with no start date , and the week-long offensive drew no naval response from it.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Shore-based observation and fires now cover the Yemeni side of the strait along its whole length, rather than from a handful of coastal positions.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    A flag state routing through Bab al-Mandeb is now negotiating with a single armed group rather than with a divided coastline.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    A 43-nation coalition announced for this water in July has still not produced a naval response to the largest territorial change on the strait in years.

    Medium term · Assessed
Sources:Gulf News·NPR
Mentions:Cape of Good Hope →SUMED →Houthis →Bab al-Mandeb →Yemen →Red Sea →Iran →Saudi Arabia →Suez Canal →Ain Sokhna →Mokha →Yanbu →NPR →Gulf News →Mediterranean →Indian Ocean →Riyadh →Djibouti →Gulf of Aden →Egypt →Tehran →Iraq →
First Reported In

Update #178 · Saudi bypass hit, and Riyadh holds fire

Gulf News· 13 Sept 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Saudi crude abandons its Red Sea route
Saudi crude stopped loading through Bab al-Mandeb in July; the eastern shore has now changed hands.
Occurred 24 Jul 2026
Read story →
Med refiners face a thinner backfill
Ain Sokhna absorbs part of the Saudi volume rerouted north once the southern exit shut.
Occurred 24 Jul 2026
Read story →
This Event
Houthis take all of Yemen's Red Sea coast
One party now controls the eastern shore of the strait through which roughly 12 per cent of world seaborne trade passes.
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.