Between 30 September and 21 October Havana opened its oil fields to concessions and let foreign branches sell wholesale and hire Cubans directly. Washington, in the same weeks, barred indirect dealings with listed Cuban entities, ended U-turn dollar clearing, designated a second state bank and removed US bank accounts for Cuban private entrepreneurs. Cuba's grid collapsed completely on 18 September and lost a plant to fire on 16 October, and the peso passed 750 to the dollar.
Havana keeps the state inside every opening, and Washington's rule now treats that state presence as grounds to block.
Since 30 September US banks may not hold accounts for Cuba's private entrepreneurs, and dollar payments between third countries can no longer clear through New York.
Since 30 September, US banks may no longer open or keep accounts for Cuba's private entrepreneurs, under a new US Treasury rule. It also ended group people-to-people tours and payments between foreign banks that passed through American ones.
The rule puts into effect a directive Donald Trump signed on 30 June 2025. Family visits now carry legal risk too, if money reaches a blacklisted military company through a middleman.
Decree-Law 135 took force on 19 October, repealing oil laws from 1938 and 1959 and letting investors, Cuban private firms included, bid for petroleum concessions.
FranceCuba's new oil and gas law, Decree-Law 135, took force on 19 October after publication in the state gazette a week earlier. It lets investors hold oil concessions for up to 30 years, with 10 more on extension.
Cuban private firms and cooperatives may also apply, each needing cabinet approval. Any holder would work beside Unión Cuba-Petróleo, the state oil company Washington blacklisted in June.
OFAC put Banco Internacional de Comercio on its SDN list on 15 October, six weeks after Banco Exterior de Cuba.
On 15 October the US Treasury blacklisted Banco Internacional de Comercio, a Havana state bank founded in 1993. Anything it holds within US reach is frozen, and American banks may not deal with it.
It is the second Cuban state bank hit in six weeks, after Banco Exterior de Cuba on 3 September. Its single listing arrived tucked inside a batch of Iran sanctions.
The US Coast Guard says a Mexican Navy team found large quantities of fuel in the ballast tanks of the cargo ship Grace, which it says was bound for Cuba.
United KingdomUnited StatesThe US Coast Guard said on 2 October that it had stopped the cargo ship Grace between Cuba and Mexico on 5 September. Mexican Navy inspectors at the Port of Progreso then found large amounts of fuel in its ballast tanks.
The Coast Guard has not said how much fuel, who owned the ship or who in Cuba would receive it. It named the Jaira Provider as an earlier case.
Fire broke out in Unit 1 at CTE Ernesto Guevara on 16 October, the same morning UNE forecast a 2,160 MW evening shortfall.
Fire broke out at 06:55 on Friday 16 October in Unit 1 of the Ernesto Guevara power station at Santa Cruz del Norte, in Mayabeque province. The state grid operator blamed an oil leak near the rotor and reported no injuries.
That morning Cuba had only 740 megawatts available against 2,260 megawatts of demand. Five other thermal units were broken down at the same time.
Cuba's whole grid went down at 1:57pm on 18 September after, by the grid operator's account, a line out of Matanzas tripped and split the island.
Cuba's national grid failed completely on Friday 18 September. A 220-kilovolt line from Matanzas to Cienfuegos tripped first, then the line to Santa Clara. The US Embassy in Havana timed the collapse at 1:57pm.
The state grid operator blamed unstable weather. On Lowdown's count it was the seventh total collapse of 2026, and the first since 2 August.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced a no-bond state warrant charging Raúl Castro with conspiracy to murder over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced on 19 October a state arrest warrant for Raúl Castro, with no bail. It charges conspiracy to commit first-degree murder over the 1996 downing of two Brothers to the Rescue planes, in which four men died.
The warrant adds a state case to the federal indictment announced in May. It can only be served if Castro leaves Cuba.
El Toque's informal index put the dollar at a record 750 pesos on 29 September, with the euro rising alongside it to 850.
SpainThe informal US dollar hit a record 750 Cuban pesos on Tuesday 29 September, on the index kept by the independent outlet El Toque. The euro rose to 850 pesos over the same weeks.
The dollar gained about 10 per cent in 23 days. Because the euro climbed almost as fast, the move points to a weaker peso rather than to a dollar shortage alone.
Gaceta No. 82 lets branches of foreign commercial representations sell wholesale and hire Cubans without a state agency taking the margin.
From 2 October, branches of foreign trading firms in Cuba may sell wholesale on the island and hire Cuban staff themselves, under rules in Gaceta Oficial No. 82. A state importer used to take their goods at the dock.
Vice-minister Déborah Rivas Saavedra said all eight investment measures approved in June now have legal rules. She named no company that has hired a Cuban directly so far.
Cuba's foreign minister says US embassies are pressing governments to abstain or walk out when the UN votes on the embargo on 28 October.
Cuba's foreign minister, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, said on 21 October that the UN General Assembly votes on 28 October on Cuba's yearly motion against the US embargo. He accused Washington of pressing governments to abstain or walk out.
He showed documents he said proved it, but did not publish them. In 2025 the motion passed 165 to 7, with 12 countries abstaining.
Banco Central de Cuba says a private exchange house has met its requirements; ADT 64 in Santa Clara opened as a central bank pilot on 31 August.
In mid-September Cuba's central bank said a private exchange house had met its requirements, the first it has licensed. A small firm in Santa Clara, trading as a pilot since 31 August, quoted 710 pesos to buy a dollar and 730 to sell.
Economist Pedro Monreal notes that no licensing rule for exchange houses appears in the official gazette. A second firm has no published way to apply.
Prisoners Defenders added 50 names and recorded 38 releases in September, leaving a record 1,351 political prisoners in Cuba.
Prisoners Defenders, a Madrid-based rights group, counted 1,351 political prisoners in Cuba at the end of September, the highest in its records. Its census, published on 15 October, logged 50 new prisoners and 38 releases that month.
The group said a cyberattack hit its website minutes after publication. Nobody has confirmed whether any of the 38 were freed on condition of leaving Cuba.
Decree 174 limits Cuba's local development projects to 100 hired people and five years, then liquidation, and applies the private sector's banned-activity list to them.
Cuba's Decree 174, published on 21 October, limits local development projects to 100 hired workers and a five-year life, after which each is wound up. Activities banned for private firms now apply to them too.
The Ministry of Economy and Planning said rules dating from 2021 had let these municipal ventures work outside the limits set for private business.
The Madrid-based Cuban Observatory of Human Rights counted at least 344 repressive actions in September and asked the EU to look at Cuba's medical brigade in Italy.
The Observatorio Cubano de Derechos Humanos (OCDH), a Madrid-based monitor, logged at least 344 repressive acts in September, in a report published on 6 October. It called the prosecution of satirist Eduardo Ceballos unfair.
Blackouts kept the group from completing its August count. On 11 September it asked the European Union to examine possible trafficking in Cuba's medical brigade in Italy.
Donald Trump told the UN that freedom will be coming to Cuba, prompting a Cuban walkout, then said on 26 September he did not think the US would need the military.
QatarDonald Trump told the UN General Assembly in late September that freedom will be coming to Cuba, and Cuba's delegation walked out. On 26 September he added that he did not think the US would need its military.
Cuba's deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, answered on US television on 27 September. He said cutting off fuel to the island amounts to genocide.
The Ministry of Energy and Mines closed the Castellanos-Santa Lucía polymetallic concession until 30 January 2027 and ended seven other mining concessions.
Cuba's Ministry of Energy and Mines let the Castellanos-Santa Lucía polymetallic mine close fully until 30 January 2027, in resolutions published on 2 October. The same gazette ended seven other mining concessions.
The joint venture Minera del Caribe holds the Castellanos concession. The ministry also extended three concessions and approved one new gypsum site in Matanzas.
Direction: up on the US side, sideways in Havana. OFAC has promised fuller part 516 rules with definitions and general licences, and that text decides whether any channel for private Cubans reopens. A second named fuel cargo after Grace would show the Coast Guard stop is standing practice; Maritime Executive reported at least two similar interventions over the summer. Donald Trump set a ceiling on 26 September: "I don't think we'll need the military." The dated tests come first in Havana's diplomacy. On 28 October the UN General Assembly votes on Cuba's embargo resolution, which passed 165-7-12 in 2025; Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla says US embassies are asking governments to abstain, so a materially lower yes count would show that lobbying working. Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío told C-SPAN on 27 September that withholding fuel was "equivalent to a genocide". On the economic side, the first Decree-Law 135 tender call is the point at which Havana learns whether any investor will bid into a sector run beside an SDN-listed state company.
