Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
AI: Jobs, Power & Money
6NOV

Central banks see AI before payrolls do

3 min read
11:10UTC

Central banks in Australia, Japan and Ireland wrote AI into their forecasts and risk warnings: the RBA raised rates to 4.85% and credited data-centre investment for stronger growth, and the Bank of Japan named AI demand a main risk. Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft doubled capital spending, while AI-cited US job cuts fell to their lowest month of the year. Korea's big banks rehired retirees while cutting graduate intake, News1 reports, and a Madrid court ruled AI alone is no ground for dismissal.

Key takeaway

AI now shows up in central banks' forecasts, risk lists and capex lines before it shows up in payrolls.

This briefing mapped
Economic
Legal
Regulatory

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November and said data-centre investment had kept growth stronger than it expected.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Australia's central bank raised its cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November. Its November forecast said data-centre investment kept growth stronger than expected, while inflation at home set the rise.

Unemployment averaged 4.6% in the September quarter and is forecast above 5% by 2028. Data-centre building is holding up Australia's growth while the jobless rate climbs. 

Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft each roughly doubled quarterly spending on data centres and chips; Amazon and Alphabet added staff, while Microsoft gave no headcount.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft each spent about twice as much on property and equipment between July and September as a year before. Amazon and Alphabet also added staff.

Microsoft reported no headcount. Press reports say it offered voluntary exit packages to about 60,000 employees from 26 October, a figure the company has not confirmed. 

US employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, and market and economic conditions overtook AI as the leading reason cited for 2026 to date, Challenger reported.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 43,994 announced US job cuts in October, in its report on 5 November. Only 1,265 cited AI, the lowest monthly figure this year.

Market and economic conditions now lead 2026's tally with 130,531 cuts, ahead of AI's 121,401. Cuts blamed on falling demand have more than doubled this year, a sign of weaker sales. 

Madrid's regional high court has ruled that introducing AI is not on its own a ground for dismissal; an employer must prove AI's effect through Spain's existing four causes.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

A Madrid appeals court has ruled that bringing in AI is not, by itself, a lawful reason to sack staff in Spain. Its judgment, dated 8 October, became public in early November.

Employers must prove AI's effect using the economic, technical, organisational or production grounds already in Spanish law. The General Union of Workers counts 10 large AI-linked layoffs in Spain, affecting at least 6,711 people. 

Sources:GCLEX·COPE

The Bank of Japan named AI-related demand the second of its main risks on 30 October; three days later Ireland's central bank governor flagged the debt behind AI investment.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Bank of Japan listed AI-related demand as the second of its main risks on 30 October. It warned that asset prices could adjust if profits lag the investment.

Three days later, Irish central bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf flagged the debt behind AI spending. Tokyo sees AI as a cure for too few workers, not a threat to jobs. 

The Office for Budget Responsibility published a new sector table on 28 October: output per worker in information and communication grew 7.6% a year since late 2024.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility published new sector productivity figures on 28 October. Output per worker in information and communication has grown 7.6% a year since late 2024, faster than its 5.6% pace before the pandemic.

The watchdog still credits AI with just 0.2 points of yearly productivity growth. Hotels and restaurants sped up too, so the gains cannot yet be pinned on AI. 

Korea's four largest banks rehired 1,013 retirees last year, equal to 79.1% of their graduate intake, according to the news agency News1.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Korea's four biggest banks rehired 1,013 retired staff last year, the news agency News1 reported on 3 November. That equals 79.1% of the graduates they took on.

The returners check loans and run internal controls on short, lower-paid contracts. Banks keep veteran judgement cheaply while software handles routine work, and graduates find fewer openings. 

Sources:News1

Singapore's Ministry of Manpower counted 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter, concentrated in information and communications, finance and manufacturing.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Singapore Ministry of Manpower counted 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter, up from 4,620, in figures released on 30 October. Cuts stayed high in finance, tech and manufacturing.

The ministry blamed business reorganisation and did not mention AI. Resident unemployment edged up to 3.0%, and new jobs for residents came mostly from public and essential services. 

The International Labour Organisation said on 4 November that AI's effects on jobs remain modest, and warned developing economies of disruption without dividend.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The International Labour Organisation said on 4 November that AI has changed jobs only slowly so far, even in rich countries. It warned that poorer economies risk the disruption without the gains.

In its high-productivity scenario, output rises about 5% over ten years in advanced economies but only 2.7% in low-income ones. Patchy electricity limits how far AI reaches many poorer workers. 

HM Treasury's Data Centre Covenant asks developers for well-paid jobs that outlast construction, and offers faster grid connections to the projects it judges strategic.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The UK Treasury's Data Centre Covenant, published on 28 October, asks developers to create lasting, well-paid local jobs and fund apprenticeships at every site. Strategic projects can win faster grid connections before 2030.

The jobs tests tell developers what they should do and set no wage. The government says Britain needs 6 GW of AI data-centre capacity by 2030. 

Sources:HM Treasury

Cognizant added 3,200 staff in the September quarter as its chief executive said more than half of the company's code is AI-assisted.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Cognizant added 3,200 staff in the September quarter, taking its workforce to 359,900, it reported on 29 October. Chief executive Ravi Kumar said over half its code is now written with AI help.

New bookings fell 7% on the year, and Cognizant trimmed its growth forecast for 2026. So far, more AI-written code has come with more staff, not fewer. 

The European Commission is targeting 3 December to adopt its Quality Jobs Act, which covers algorithmic management at work, according to Remote Work Europe.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The European Commission aims to adopt its Quality Jobs Act proposal on 3 December, Remote Work Europe reports. The draft is expected to cover algorithmic management, where software assigns, monitors and rates workers.

The date is unconfirmed; the Commission's work programme says only the fourth quarter of 2026. Parliament has already pushed the AI Act's employment rules back to December 2027. 

Closing comments

Sideways for payrolls, up for central-bank attention. The next test is Challenger's November report, due by 4 December 2026: a second month of AI-cited cuts below 3,000 would confirm the shift to economic reasons. On policy, the European Commission's planned 3 December adoption of the Quality Jobs Act would move algorithmic-management rules from consultation to a formal proposal.

Different Perspectives
Reserve Bank of Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November and credited data-centre investment for activity running stronger than it expected. It cites rapid growth in AI-related prices abroad as one reason global inflation stays above targets into 2027.
Bank of Japan
Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan's 30 October Outlook Report named developments in AI-related demand the second of its main risks. It treats AI as labour-saving investment for a shrinking workforce and warns of asset-price adjustment if profits lag the spending.
Central Bank of Ireland
Central Bank of Ireland
Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said on 2 November that AI investment has supported Irish activity and flagged the debt financing behind it as a financial-stability risk. On jobs, he named skills bottlenecks and mismatches, not job losses.
Office for Budget Responsibility
Office for Budget Responsibility
The OBR's 28 October outlook showed output per worker in information and communication growing 7.6% a year, yet kept AI's boost to UK productivity at 0.2 percentage points a year. It does not attribute the faster growth to AI.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
Challenger, Gray & Christmas
Challenger reported on 5 November that market and economic conditions overtook AI as the leading stated reason for 2026's US job cuts, at 130,531 against 121,401. AI was cited for 1,265 cuts in October, its lowest month of the year.
Singapore Ministry of Manpower
Singapore Ministry of Manpower
The Singapore Ministry of Manpower put third-quarter retrenchments at 4,800, concentrated in information and communications, financial services and manufacturing, with business reorganisation the main driver. Its release does not mention AI.