Cook Political Report
Non-partisan US race-rating service; 11 September snapshot held House at 206D-208R with 21 tossups.
On 18 June, Cook Political Report moved seven House seats towards Democrats, extending a run of ratings changes that made more Republican-held districts competitive.
Last refreshed: 1 October 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Does Cook's Solid R 188 total reflect a Republican structural advantage that tariff momentum cannot overcome?
Timeline for Cook Political Report
Moved Texas governor's race to Lean Republican
US Midterms 2026: Texas PAC's Senate spending hits $131.5mMentioned in: Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
US Midterms 2026Moved Florida's governor's race to Lean Republican
US Midterms 2026: Florida Rising loses an exact-match caseMoved 15 House races towards Democrats
US Midterms 2026: Cook's 15 House shifts all aid DemocratsMoved Georgia's Senate race to Likely Democrat
US Midterms 2026: YouGov puts Ossoff 10 points clearBackground
Cook Political Report is a non-partisan US race-rating service covering congressional contests. Its classifications give campaigns, donors and political journalists a shared shorthand for judging whether a seat is SAFE or competitive.
The service uses directional SAFE, Likely, Lean and Toss-up ratings. On 7 April, it moved Pennsylvania's 8th District to Toss-up and Ohio's 1st District to Lean Democrat, while Sabato's Crystal Ball also shifted key Ohio districts. The overlap made the moves a useful signal that the underlying map had changed rather than merely the publication calendar.
Cook's value lies in converting local candidate, economic and electoral evidence into comparable judgements across The House and Senate. Its 13 April shift of four Senate races towards Democrats showed how a ratings change can alter the practical map for party committees and outside spenders.
Cook ratings track economic pressure
On 3 June, Cook moved Iowa's Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after its analyst linked fuel and fertiliser costs for Iowa farmers to the Iran war. That judgement showed how its ratings translate national economic conditions into the prospects of individual contests.
On 18 June, Cook shifted seven House seats towards Democrats and none towards Republicans. Four became Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican, while three became Lean Republican. The changes made Cook's map a running measure of where Republican structural advantages were beginning to face competitive pressure.