Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin is a subscription polling and election-forecasting publication founded by Nate Silver in 2023 after he departed FiveThirtyEight, the data-journalism outlet he founded in 2008 and which was later acquired by ESPN/ABC News. It charges a subscription fee, distinguishing it from free aggregator sites, and produces a composite estimate by weighting individual polls for sample size, historical accuracy and house effects rather than treating any single survey as authoritative.

Its generic congressional ballot aggregate is the most-cited single indicator of the national political environment in the current US election cycle, watched by campaigns, other forecasters and journalists as a reference point even when its reading diverges from institutional pollsters. Silver's models have faced past criticism for underestimating Republican polling errors, a factor he has acknowledged and revised his methodology to address.

The publication's influence rests on that aggregation method rather than on any single poll it runs itself; when its reading moves sharply, or diverges from the wider field, that movement is itself treated as a political event.