About 124.3 million ballots were cast in the 2026 midterms, a raw record for a midterm, on estimates from the University of Florida Election Lab, run by the political scientist Michael McDonald1. Turnout of 49.4% of eligible voters ranks second to 2018's 50.05% and is the second-highest midterm rate since 1914, as the estimates were relayed. Early voting ran heavy before polling day, including 188,667 in-person votes on Georgia's first day. The Lab warns that its figures are least certain in California and Washington State, where mail ballots postmarked by polling day are still arriving.
11NOV
UF Election Lab counts 124.3m ballots
2 min read
18:10UTC
About 124.3 million ballots set a raw record for a midterm, but the University of Florida Election Lab puts turnout at 49.4%, second to 2018.
PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway
A record 124.3 million midterm ballots still left turnout second to 2018, at 49.4%.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
More Americans voted in this year's Midterm elections, the elections held between presidential contests, than in any previous midterm. But the country's adult population keeps growing. Measured as a share of everyone eligible, slightly fewer people voted than in 2018, when about half of eligible Americans took part.
Root Causes
The voting-eligible population grows every cycle with adult population growth and naturalisation, so the raw number of ballots can set a record while the rate falls. Records in raw totals are therefore expected in most cycles and say little about engagement on their own.
What could happen next?
- Meaning
Turnout near half of eligible voters in both Trump-era midterms, 2018 and 2026, suggests high participation has outlasted a single cycle.
First Reported In
Update #24 · Late ballots flip North Carolina's 3rd
University of Florida Election Lab· 11 Nov 2026
Read original →Different Perspectives
University of Florida Election Lab
The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.
Senator John Thune
Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.
Donald Trump
Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.
Judge David O. Carter
Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.
Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.