CREA found that 56% of Russian crude exports moved on sanctioned shadow tankers in February 2026, with 23 false-flag vessels delivering €800 million of crude1. Separately, 100% of Yamal LNG cargoes reached EU ports that month — 1,543,347 tonnes worth approximately €690 million — the first time every cargo from the Arctic project made delivery since operations began in 20182.
The shadow fleet operates outside legal frameworks; the Yamal LNG trade operates within them. Glasgow-based Seapeak and Greek-registered Dynagas transported 17 of 21 February shipments, lawful under existing EU rules that exempt LNG from the sanctions applied to Russian crude and refined products3. The EU's phased Russian gas ban begins with LNG on 25 April, five weeks away. The 100% delivery rate — achieved in a month when the sanctioned LNG carrier Arctic Metagaz was destroyed off the Libyan coast — suggests the remaining fleet is running at maximum throughput before the ban takes effect.
The shadow fleet presents a separate enforcement problem. The 23 false-flag vessels CREA identified carried crude worth €800 million in a single month. These ships use falsified registration, transponder manipulation, and ship-to-ship transfers in open water to move Russian oil past the $60 price cap. Western enforcement has focused on insurance restrictions and port-state controls, but the February data shows the fleet adapting faster than enforcement tightens. The destruction of the Arctic Metagaz demonstrated that physical interdiction is possible; the shadow fleet's 56% market share demonstrates it has not been sufficient.
Together, the two channels delivered approximately €1.49 billion to Russian coffers in February through maritime trade alone. Dmitriev's argument that global energy markets cannot remain stable without Russian supply gains traction precisely because the volumes are large enough to affect global pricing. The question for European policymakers is whether the 25 April LNG ban holds firm, or whether the same price pressures that prompted Washington's sanctions waiver generate European exemptions before the ink is dry.
