12OCT

Yemen's front began with a blocked flight

2 min read

10:59UTC

SABA reports at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen, and Kpler data shows tankers thinning out of the Bab el-Mandeb.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Both of the war's shipping chokepoints are tightening at the same time.

SABA (Yemen News Agency), the wire of the internationally recognised government in Aden, reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen⁠¹. Kpler tracking data relayed by the Associated Press shows fewer tankers using the Bab el-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and Djibouti that carries Red Sea traffic towards the Suez Canal, after the week's attacks.

AP dates the current escalation to Monday 13 July, when a Saudi strike on Sanaa airport stopped an Iranian Mahan Air flight carrying a senior delegation from the Houthis, the Iran-aligned armed movement that has held northern Yemen since 2014; the coalition later let the aircraft land at Hodeida instead⁠². Since then the Houthis have struck Abha airport, Saudi shipping and Saudi oil facilities, Saudi-led forces have hit Hodeida and Kamaran, missiles and drones have landed on Yemeni military camps, and Mokha port has been damaged.

Shipping that left the Gulf had been running this way instead. Vessels now avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb have no third route to take, so the two straits tighten together rather than one relieving the other. The 2022 UN-brokered truce that held Yemen's war at a simmer for four years is at risk on AP's account.

Several operational details in that reporting rest on anonymous Yemeni, Gulf and Houthi officials. This movement has also claimed more than has been shown: on 5 August it announced two tanker strikes when UKMTO logged a single explosion, and its July claim against crude transport infrastructure was never independently verified.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed movement that controls much of northern Yemen. Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti, used by ships travelling between Asia, Europe and the Red Sea. SABA reported 17 soldiers killed, while shipping data showed fewer tankers using the route. Violence in Yemen can therefore affect trade far beyond the country.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Traffic disruption at Bab el-Mandeb removes part of the alternative route available to Gulf-bound shipping.
Risk
Unverified claims and counter-claims may prompt ships to divert before authorities establish what happened.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States×2

LeftRight

Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. Tankers avoiding it must sail around southern Africa, adding distance, fuel use and days to a voyage.

Seven vessels diverted after tanker strikes in July. Lower traffic now affects a route that had offered an alternative for cargo displaced from Hormuz.

Consensus view: Attacks near Bab el-Mandeb threaten a second maritime route as Hormuz remains constrained. Sana'a Center researcher Maged al-Madhaji has described Houthi maritime operations as a way to raise regional costs without holding conventional naval superiority.

Counter-view: Gulf Research Center analysts argue that Saudi air defences and coalition strikes can contain the threat if they identify launch networks. The difficulty lies in distinguishing claims from confirmed attacks.

Key tension: Whether the violence becomes a sustained campaign against shipping, or remains a series of contested incidents.

First Reported In

Update #168 · Iran replaces the man who set its terms

Associated Press· 11 Aug 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis claim two tankers; UKMTO logs one blast

The reported Yemen casualties and tanker decline followed earlier Houthi attacks on shipping.

Occurred 5 Aug 2026

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This Event

Yemen's front began with a blocked flight

The southern chokepoint had been absorbing traffic pushed out of the northern one, so a squeeze there compounds the problem instead of relieving it.

Led to

Six dead in the Bab el-Mandeb

The Bab el-Mandeb deaths follow a week in which Houthi attacks had already reduced traffic through the strait.

Occurred 10 Aug 2026

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Different Perspectives

Government of Latvia

Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.

India's Ministry of External Affairs

After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.

Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.

Donald Trump and the US Treasury

The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.

Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.