Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
12OCT

Grossi, Gharibabadi and Trump differ on access

3 min read
10:59UTC

Grossi said IAEA inspections of Iran 'going to happen' on 24 June; Gharibabadi tied access to sanctions relief first; Trump claimed Iran 'completely agreed', and Tehran denied it within hours.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Grossi, Gharibabadi and Trump describe three inspection regimes, with no signed instrument behind any of them.

Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in Japan on Wednesday 24 June that inspections of Iran's enrichment sites are "going to happen" and that the agency would work on "the modalities, dates, procedures, places, very soon"⁠1. The IAEA is the UN nuclear watchdog that verifies what states hold; it has been locked out of Iran for more than 100 days, with 440.9 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium unverified since February. Grossi moved from whether to how, his firmest language since the Islamabad memorandum, though he named no date.

Iran answered in the opposite direction the same day. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said access would follow only a final deal and practical sanctions relief, not precede them⁠2. That contradicts the recitals of OFAC's General License X, which assumed IAEA access, and follows spokesman Esmail Baghaei's flat refusal on 23 June. The civilian government cannot concede the point, because the inspection block is an IRGC deterrent posture, not a negotiating chip the foreign ministry controls.

Then the claims widened. Donald Trump, the US President, told Fox News on Thursday that US inspectors would join the IAEA mission and that Iran had "completely agreed" to inspections⁠3. Iran's foreign ministry denied any such agreement within hours, the identical sequence to his 23 June claim and Baghaei's denial. No instrument backs the assertion. OFAC's only 24 June action was Russia-related removals⁠4, and The White House logged a single Senate nomination⁠5; no Iran instrument has followed General License X. The strongest signal in the file is the absence of any signed paper to settle which of the three accounts is true.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

International inspectors from the atomic energy watchdog, the IAEA, have not been allowed into Iran's nuclear sites for over 100 days. They need to check what Iran holds, specifically 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, material that is close to weapons-grade. On Wednesday, the IAEA's chief said inspections will happen and the agency is working out the details. On the same day, Iran's deputy foreign minister said no, access only comes after a final deal and after sanctions relief, not before. Then on Thursday, President Trump said on Fox News that Iran had 'completely agreed' to inspections and US inspectors would even join. Iran's government denied that within hours. None of the three actors contradicted each other accidentally. The IAEA chief wants to preserve the agency's role. Iran's deputy FM is relaying the IRGC position. Trump's claim has no paperwork behind it; the official US government record shows zero Iran instruments signed since 22 June.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    GL X's recitals assumed IAEA access that Iran has now refused three times; if the 21 August expiry arrives with the IAEA still locked out, the sanctions relief mechanism loses its stated legal justification, creating grounds for Congress to challenge the licence.

  • Consequence

    The 440.9 kg of 60%-enriched uranium remains unverified beyond 100 days; without a baseline restart, any future IAEA inspection begins without a confirmed starting stockpile, meaning any diversion between February and inspection-day is permanently unaccountable.

First Reported In

Update #138 · Three flags over Hormuz, none enforced

Euronews· 25 Jun 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Government of Latvia
Government of Latvia
Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
India's Ministry of External Affairs
After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.