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SIPRI
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SIPRI

Independent Swedish institute tracking arms transfers, military spending, and global conflict.

On 20 March, SIPRI analysis put Russia's 2026 defence and security spending at 38-40% of federal expenditure, making the institute's budget estimates central to judging Moscow's wartime finances.

Last refreshed: 22 September 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic

Key Question

Is SIPRI's 38-40% defence figure the clearest proof Russia's war economy is unsustainable?

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Background

SIPRI is an independent Swedish institute that tracks military expenditure, arms transfers, arms control and conflict. Its work supplies comparable public data in fields where governments often disclose incomplete figures. Its estimate of Russia's 2026 defence and security spending was cited on 20 March as 38-40% of federal expenditure.

Founded in 1966 and based in Solna, Sweden, SIPRI produces recurring research used by governments, journalists and international organisations. Its REMIT links national budgets, weapons markets and armed conflict rather than treating them as separate subjects.

The institute's arms-transfer data offers another durable measure of changing military-industrial power. Data released on 9 March recorded a 64% fall in Russian arms exports over the preceding five-year period, while European Union member states' exports rose 36%.

Key Issues
Russian defence spending

SIPRI quantifies Russia's war burden

On 20 March, SIPRI analyst Julian Cooper assessed Russia's 2026 defence and security spending at 16.8 trillion roubles, or 38-40% of federal expenditure. The estimate gives readers a benchmark for a budget otherwise obscured by classified spending.

SIPRI's role is not to settle whether Russia can sustain the war. It makes the fiscal trade-off legible: a share of spending described as the highest since the Soviet era sits alongside a depleted National Wealth Fund and a 3.78 trillion-rouble deficit reported on 20 March.

Common Questions
What is SIPRI?
SIPRI, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, is an independent Swedish policy institute founded in 1966. It produces authoritative annual data on global military expenditure, arms transfers, and arms control, widely used by governments and journalists as a neutral reference.Source: SIPRI
What did SIPRI reveal about Russia's arms exports?
SIPRI data released 9 March 2026 showed Russian arms exports fell 64% over the most recent five-year period. EU member states grew 36% over the same period, outpacing the US (27%) and China (11%).Source: SIPRI
How much is Russia spending on defence in 2026?
SIPRI analysis by Julian Cooper shows Russia allocated 16.8 trillion rubles to defence and security in 2026, representing 38-40% of all federal spending. Total military spending was estimated at $165.6 billion (5.8% of GDP), with 84% of the budget classified.Source: SIPRI / Julian Cooper
How does SIPRI compare to official government defence statistics?
SIPRI uses a consistent methodology across all countries, measuring actual expenditure rather than declared figures. This makes its estimates more comparable internationally but means they can diverge from official national statistics, particularly for states that classify most defence spending.Source: SIPRI
Is SIPRI data reliable for Russian military spending?
SIPRI acknowledges that 84% of Russia's military budget is classified, meaning its estimates rely on partial official data and observable procurement activity. The institute considers this a methodological limitation but produces figures treated as the most credible Independent benchmark available.Source: SIPRI
Source Material
Reuters coverage of SIPRI arms data releasesSIPRI Arms Transfers DatabaseStockholm International Peace Research Institute — WikipediaSIPRI Official Website