Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
12OCT

Ghalibaf declares new world order, quoting Xi

4 min read
10:59UTC

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday the world is 'at the cusp of a new order', quoting Xi Jinping's 'transformation unseen in a century' and crediting Iran's '70-day resistance' with accelerating the shift.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Ghalibaf is selling the war as Global South vindication while Araghchi still tries to keep a back-channel open.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran's Majlis, declared on Sunday 17 May that the world is "at the cusp of a new order", lifting Xi Jinping's formulation "transformation unseen in a century" and crediting Iran's "70-day resistance" with accelerating the shift⁠1. The declaration coincided with the morning Donald Trump's AI-generated storm image went up on Truth Social (Event 3). No bilateral instrument followed.

The framing is calibrated to the readout problem out of Beijing. The Trump-Xi summit on 14 May produced a Chinese readout that omitted the Iran specifics Trump had publicly claimed Xi pledged in person. Tehran has chosen to read that gap as a Chinese refusal to deliver the isolation Washington wanted. Ghalibaf, who sits inside the parliamentary bloc that suspended IAEA cooperation last year, is appropriating Xi's signature phrase to reframe Iran's 70 days of war as the operational accelerant of a global power shift Beijing is endorsing by silence.

The declaration also exposes Iran's two-track foreign policy at its widest aperture this month. Abbas Araghchi's diplomatic channel runs through Islamabad on the assumption that civilian negotiation remains possible; Ghalibaf's pulpit broadcasts historical vindication on the assumption that it is unnecessary. The Western maritime mission Iran's Majlis just declared its toll regime over (Event 0, and the BRICS deadlock at Delhi (Event 4) both sit inside the framing Ghalibaf is inverting. Whether Tehran can run both registers simultaneously without the bounty-bill threshold (Event 6) collapsing the diplomatic side is the question the Foreign Ministry now has to answer.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is the Speaker of Iran's parliament, a senior position in a country where Parliament matters considerably more than in many authoritarian states. On 17 May he made a speech declaring that the world is on the verge of a 'new order', using a phrase that China's President Xi Jinping has used to describe the shift in global power away from the United States. Ghalibaf credited Iran's 70 days of resisting US and Israeli attacks with helping to cause this shift. This kind of rhetoric serves a domestic purpose, telling Iranians that their hardship during the war is historically meaningful, and an external one, claiming that China and the Global South support Iran's position even though Beijing has not said so explicitly.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Ghalibaf's declaration serves two structural functions simultaneously. Domestically, it repositions Iran's 70-day war from a catastrophic failure of deterrence, US and Israeli strikes destroyed Iran's air defences in the opening hours, into a historical pivot point that validates the hardliner wing of the Majlis. This framing is essential for the parliamentary bloc that suspended IAEA cooperation 221-0 and is now advancing the Hormuz toll bill and the Trump bounty bill simultaneously.

Externally, Ghalibaf is exploiting the Beijing readout gap. China's summit communique named only 'the Middle East situation' without Iran-specific language, which Iran's leadership has interpreted as Beijing refusing to endorse Washington's demands. Reading that refusal as Chinese endorsement of Iran's resistance is interpretively aggressive but internally consistent: if China will not say Iran is wrong, Iran can say China believes Iran is right.

Escalation

Ghalibaf's declaration that Iran's resistance is historically vindicated runs directly counter to any settlement that frames the war as a negotiated compromise. The parliamentary leadership is publicly committing to a narrative that makes ceasefire-as-capitulation domestically toxic, limiting Araghchi's flexibility in the Islamabad channel.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Ghalibaf's public framing of the war as Global South vindication creates a domestic political cost for any ceasefire that does not include explicit US concessions on Hormuz sovereignty, extending the likely duration of the maritime disruption.

    Short term · Medium
  • Risk

    Tehran's annexation of Chinese rhetorical authority without Beijing's endorsement risks a Chinese public clarification that explicitly distances Xi's 'transformation unseen in a century' from the Iran-US conflict, producing a diplomatic humiliation at the worst possible moment.

    Short term · Low
  • Meaning

    The simultaneous Ghalibaf declaration and Araghchi negotiation represent the widest public divergence between Iran's legislative and diplomatic tracks since the war began, signalling institutional stress inside the Tehran policy framework.

    Immediate · High
First Reported In

Update #100 · Tehran prints the toll book; Delhi joins the queue

ANI News· 17 May 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Government of Latvia
Government of Latvia
Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
India's Ministry of External Affairs
After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.