Two Indian-flagged LPG tankers transited the strait of Hormuz safely on Saturday after direct diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Tehran. Iran's ambassador to India confirmed the passage 1. Tehran's price: return of three tankers seized by India's Coast Guard in February 2. India has 22 vessels still stranded west of the strait. No blanket arrangement exists — each crossing requires a separate negotiation.
The mechanism matters more than the two ships. When the IRGC declared on 10 March that "not a litre of oil" would pass through Hormuz , the declaration was absolute. In practice, it is conditional. Chinese-operated vessels had already moved 11.7 million barrels through the strait by that date, broadcasting AIS messages emphasising Chinese ownership and crew composition . India has now secured its own bilateral channel. The blockade is not a wall — it is a gate, and Tehran holds the key.
The structure creates a two-tier strait. Countries that maintain direct diplomatic relationships with Iran negotiate passage. Countries aligned with the US military campaign do not transit. India and China now have a direct incentive to stay out of any escort Coalition: they get better terms bilaterally than they would inside a multinational force the US itself says is not ready to operate . Every country Trump called on to send warships — Australia, Japan, the UK, Germany, France — declined within 72 hours. India's bilateral deal shows one reason why: for import-dependent economies, diplomacy with Tehran delivers ships through the strait. Military alignment with Washington does not.
Iran can accelerate or delay each of India's 22 remaining transits as rolling diplomatic leverage — a slow-drip source of pressure on a country that depends on Gulf LPG for domestic cooking fuel and Gulf crude for the bulk of its refinery inputs. The question is whether other stranded-fleet nations — the Philippines, Bangladesh, South Korea — attempt their own bilateral channels, further fragmenting a blockade the US has proven unable to break militarily or diplomatically. If they do, the strait of Hormuz becomes less a chokepoint than a diplomatic marketplace, with Iran setting terms of access country by country.
