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Iran Conflict 2026
4APR

Houthi blockade cuts Saudi loadings 36%

2 min read
09:24UTC

Saudi crude loadings through Bab el-Mandeb fell 36% before the Houthis struck the tankers Encelia and Layla on 23 July, turning a blockade threat into realised losses.

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Key takeaway

Rerouting round the Cape keeps Saudi barrels flowing but ties up ships and lifts freight.

Saudi crude loadings through Bab el-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that funnels Suez-bound shipping, fell 36% in two weeks, from 9.5 million barrels a day at the 29 June peak to 6.1 million in the week of 13 July, before a shot was fired 1. The Houthis, the Yemeni armed movement that controls the country's Red Sea coast, declared a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping through the strait on 20 July. On 23 July they struck two Saudi tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, with missiles and drones in the Red Sea; both caught fire, the Encelia broadcast 'not under command', and no crew casualties were reported 2.

More than 2,000 ships have already rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to three weeks to a Europe-bound voyage, and Saudi exporters have pushed over 70% of their barrels to the west-coast terminal at Yanbu to skip the strait entirely. The military dimension belongs to The Gulf war that took Brent past $90 on Iran's strike against Kuwait . Every barrel that rounds the Cape instead of transiting Suez ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.

Analysts cited by Bloomberg warn that a full Bab el-Mandeb closure stacked on the Hormuz constraint could put roughly a quarter of world oil and gas at risk 3. That figure describes a ceiling rather than a base case: the strait is being avoided, not sealed, and rerouting round the Cape keeps the barrels flowing at a higher freight cost rather than removing them from the market.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed group that controls much of Yemen and has fought a civil war there since 2014. In 2023 they began attacking ships in the Red Sea they linked to Israel; they have now declared a blockade specifically targeting vessels connected to Saudi Arabia. Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that ships must pass through to reach the Suez Canal from the Red Sea. Two Saudi tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, were hit by missiles and drones there, and Saudi crude loadings through the strait fell more than a third in two weeks as shippers diverted cargo. That matters because Saudi Arabia can reroute some crude to its Red Sea port at Yanbu, but the slower, longer voyage round the Cape of Good Hope adds cost and time that ultimately reaches fuel buyers in Europe and Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Houthi anti-ship missile and drone capability traces to transfers routed through Yemen's Hodeidah corridor, a supply chain UN Panel of Experts reporting has documented since 2015. That dependency gives external suppliers indirect leverage over Red Sea shipping without direct naval engagement of their own.

Saudi Arabia's Bab el-Mandeb exposure is structural: crude loaded at Red Sea terminals for European and North African buyers has no chokepoint-free alternative besides the slower, costlier Yanbu-to-Cape route, which is now absorbing the diverted cargoes, part of the same Gulf war Iran's Kuwait strike opened .

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A sustained Bab el-Mandeb blockade would compound Suez-dependent Mediterranean freight costs already rising on aframax pricing, layering a second Red Sea risk premium onto European-bound cargoes.

Sources:The National·Bloomberg
Mentions:Houthis →Saudi Arabia →Bab al-Mandeb →Cape of Good Hope →Yanbu →Yemen →Iran →Fujairah →Gulf Research Centre →Red Sea →Kuwait →Bloomberg →Israel →Encelia →Layla →RUSI →Suez Crisis →Dated Brent →
First Reported In

Update #19 · Second chokepoint doubles Med freight

The National· 23 Jul 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Brent takes $90 on the ninth night
The Iran-Kuwait strike that broke Brent through $90 (ID:5121) is the wider Gulf war the Houthi Bab el-Mandeb blockade and tanker strikes now extend into the Red Sea.
Occurred 19 Jul 2026
Read story →
This Event
Houthi blockade cuts Saudi loadings 36%
A second strait now faces kinetic blockade, forcing Saudi crude around the Cape and lengthening every Europe-bound voyage before any barrel is lost.
Different Perspectives
Oil traders
Oil traders
Sent Brent down 2.29 per cent to $98.38 a barrel on reports that mediation was reviving, moving the price on CENTCOM's quiet night rather than on Trump's same-day promise of a bigger operation with no deadline attached.
Iran
Iran
An Iranian official called the same mediation account completely misleading, denying it received any US proposal via Baghdad on the same day Iraq denied delivering one, leaving neither denial able to settle what actually passed between the two capitals.
Iraq
Iraq
Called groundless the New York Times account that its prime minister carried a US ceasefire proposal to Tehran, a denial that also protects Baghdad's effort to avoid becoming a party to a war fought by aircraft it does not control.
OHCHR
OHCHR
Recorded 17 civilian seafarer deaths since the war began, a population neither the Pentagon nor Iran's Health Ministry counts in its own tally, and called for urgent action on 6,000 crew stranded across roughly 400 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthis
Houthis
Enforced the blockade on Saudi-linked shipping it declared on 20 July by hitting the NCC Masa and then an Aramco facility at Jazan, moving from radio warnings to strikes on land after four days without a confirmed hit.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Struck Houthi military sites near Hodeidah the same day the NCC Masa was hit, while its coalition spokesman insisted Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Salif all remain open to navigation. The distinction protects the ports Yemen's population depends on for food and fuel even while punishing the group behind the tanker strike.