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Iran Conflict 2026
28FEB

Tehran says ball is in America's court

3 min read
19:00UTC

Iran says it holds an initial draft accord relayed via Pakistan and is waiting on the United States' final counter-text, inverting the Western framing of who is holding up the deal.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Tehran says it holds the draft and is waiting on Washington, reversing the question of who is stalling the deal.

Iran has obtained an initial draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) through Pakistani mediation and is awaiting the United States' finalised counter-text, according to a strategic analyst who told the Iranian state-linked network SNN that "the ball is now in America's court"⁠1. Islamabad has shuttled messages between the two capitals for weeks, and Tehran's account places the unanswered move on Washington's side of the table.

The framing inverts the Western narrative. In Trump's telling, the deal was "largely negotiated" and awaiting Iranian follow-through; in Tehran's, the draft is already in Iran's hands and the United States is the one yet to respond. Both cannot be the waiting party. The contest over who is stalling is not cosmetic, because each government answers to a domestic audience that punishes the side seen to be conceding and rewards the side seen to be holding firm.

The procedural record gives Tehran's version some support. Trump's own condition, posted on 24 May, is that the naval blockade stays in place until any agreement is certified and signed, which rules out a partial or verbal text. If Washington will only lift the blockade on a fully signed instrument, then the next move genuinely does sit with the party that has to draft, certify and sign that paper.

The inversion is a deliberate piece of narrative positioning, amplified through a state-linked outlet, and it works precisely because the underlying facts are ambiguous enough to support more than one reading. With no published text from either side, the public account of who holds the draft is itself a negotiating instrument, and Tehran has chosen to wield it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan has been acting as a go-between for the US and Iran throughout this conflict. Iran says Pakistan delivered an initial draft of the peace agreement (the memorandum of understanding) to Tehran, and now Iran is waiting for the United States to send back its version with any changes. This flips who looks like they are holding things up. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had promised "good news in hours" on a deal; that timeline had slipped to "a couple of days". Meanwhile, an analyst speaking on Iranian state TV said the ball is now in America's court. This is about managing public perception as much as actual negotiating. Iran wants to be seen as cooperative and waiting, with Washington as the slow party. Whether the US has actually received a specific text to respond to, or whether this is Iran's framing of a more fluid situation, is not confirmed from outside sources.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Pakistan's army-chief channel emerged because the civilian tracks, Araghchi's foreign ministry, Vance's Islamabad visit (cancelled after Iran walked back), and the Doha session, all stalled on the same nuclear sequencing problem.

The Pakistani military has institutional access to both Iran's IRGC command (where nuclear decisions actually live) and to the US national security apparatus (via CENTCOM interoperability). No civilian diplomatic track has that dual access. The result is that the deal's most sensitive concessions travel through a channel that bypasses elected governments on both sides.

Trump's "blockade holds until certified and signed" condition creates the specific procedural problem Iran is now exploiting: if the US insists on a signed final instrument before lifting the blockade, Tehran can frame every day of blockade continuation as American delay, even as the MOU draft sits unresponded-to in Washington's inbox.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Iran's procedural-inversion framing on 26 May shifts domestic and international optics: any further delay in signing can now be attributed to US procrastination rather than Iranian resistance.

  • Consequence

    Pakistan's army-chief channel becoming the primary MOU conduit means Islamabad's general-officer corps has structural authority over the deal's final text, an institutional outcome that changes Pakistan's regional leverage regardless of whether the deal is signed.

First Reported In

Update #108 · US strikes Bandar Abbas as deal talk stalls

CBS News· 26 May 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Wang Yi
Wang Yi
China's foreign minister and Djibouti's issued a joint communique on 21 October saying the war should not reach the Horn of Africa and stressing free navigation through Bab al-Mandeb. The text names neither Iran nor the Houthis, and Djibouti hosts China's only overseas military base, opposite the Yemeni coast.
Ministry of External Affairs
Ministry of External Affairs
India's foreign ministry called the attacks on Saudi civilian and energy sites "unacceptable" on 22 October and said they must stop at once. An Indian died at Dammam, Indians were injured there and at Shaybah, and about 4,000 Umrah pilgrims remain stranded by one MP's count.
Iraq
Iraq
Iraq closed the al-Sheeb crossing with Iran to travellers and trucks from 21 October and said other crossings would close gradually. Unlike September's closure, which ended on a staged timetable, this one has none, and Iran's interior ministry said it received no notice.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Egypt's president said on 21 October that Cairo's support would "defend Saudi territory, and does not include an attack on Yemen". Araghchi warned that Egyptian involvement would further complicate the situation, and Cairo's limit matches the one Ankara set on 8 October against attacking another state's soil.
UK Ministry of Defence
UK Ministry of Defence
The MoD said on 20 October that RAF Typhoons over Saudi Arabia will not strike the Houthis, but extended tanker support to Saudi operations including against Houthi targets in Yemen. The tanker line sets no limit on strikes, so British aircraft may now refuel Saudi jets on bombing runs.
Turkey
Turkey
Ankara sent the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement to parliament around 20 October, and its published text treats an attack on one party as an attack on all. Article 16 brings it into force only on the last ratification, so the 5 October invocation in Riyadh could not yet bind Turkey.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.