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Iran Conflict 2026
23JUL

Kyiv ends energy truce, hits Ryazan refinery

3 min read
19:27UTC

Ukrainian drones set a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region on fire on 15 October, and Zelenskyy told the Financial Times "We're done" with the energy ceasefire.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Ukraine is back to hitting Russian refineries, and says it damaged six of the jets that carry glide bombs.

Ukrainian drones hit a refinery in Ryazan region, south-east of Moscow, on 15 October. Governor Pavel Malkov and the Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed a fire⁠1. The same day Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times "We're done" with the energy ceasefire, and told the broadcaster Piers Morgan that "we are losing a strong partner"⁠2.

The strike picks up a campaign in which Ukraine's Defence Ministry claimed on 4 October to have disabled 51% of Russian refining capacity. Zelenskyy had since offered to halt refinery strikes if Russia stopped hitting Ukraine's grid. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, never accepted the trade: on 13 October he said only that "contacts on this matter continue"⁠3.

Moscow and Kyiv now blame each other for the collapse. Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, called Ukraine's oil strikes a "direct and crude challenge to President Trump", and Peskov said Ukraine had never stopped them⁠4. Zelenskyy says Ukraine held off for two days after Trump's announcement⁠5. Neither account has been verified.

Ukraine also fired Neptune missiles, a Ukrainian anti-ship system adapted to hit land targets, at Borisoglebsk air base in Voronezh region during the night before the Ryazan strike⁠6. The Ukrainian General Staff said all six Su-34M fighter-bombers suffered "damage of varying degrees". Satellite imagery from 15 October, verified by Reuters, shows destruction at the airfield, but Reuters could not verify the aircraft claim⁠7. The Su-34 is a main Russian carrier of guided glide bombs, the weapon that killed 23 people in a Zaporizhzhia apartment block on 10 October.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

On 11 October President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's power stations and oil plants. On the night of 14 to 15 October Russia launched a huge drone raid on Ukraine. The same night and next day, Ukraine fired missiles at a Russian air base and hit an oil refinery in Ryazan, south-east of Moscow. President Zelenskyy now says the pause is over, and Kyiv and Moscow each accuse the other of breaking it.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Neither side has a reason to stop first without a written mechanism. Ukraine's refinery strikes and Russia's grid strikes hit each other's winter economy, and an oral truce leaves no one to rule on who broke it.

The Su-34 carries Russia's guided glide bombs, which strike front-line towns from beyond the reach of most Ukrainian air defence. Striking the aircraft on the ground, as Kyiv says it did at Borisoglebsk, is one of the few ways it can reduce those launches.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Ukraine's refinery strikes resume ahead of winter, when Russian domestic fuel demand and export plans both peak.

  • Risk

    Washington may hold Kyiv responsible for the end of a truce it announced, with costs for Ukraine's access to US support.

First Reported In

Update #29 · Trump waives his own 500% Russia tariffs

PBS NewsHour / AP· 17 Oct 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Wang Yi
Wang Yi
China's foreign minister and Djibouti's issued a joint communique on 21 October saying the war should not reach the Horn of Africa and stressing free navigation through Bab al-Mandeb. The text names neither Iran nor the Houthis, and Djibouti hosts China's only overseas military base, opposite the Yemeni coast.
Ministry of External Affairs
Ministry of External Affairs
India's foreign ministry called the attacks on Saudi civilian and energy sites "unacceptable" on 22 October and said they must stop at once. An Indian died at Dammam, Indians were injured there and at Shaybah, and about 4,000 Umrah pilgrims remain stranded by one MP's count.
Iraq
Iraq
Iraq closed the al-Sheeb crossing with Iran to travellers and trucks from 21 October and said other crossings would close gradually. Unlike September's closure, which ended on a staged timetable, this one has none, and Iran's interior ministry said it received no notice.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Egypt's president said on 21 October that Cairo's support would "defend Saudi territory, and does not include an attack on Yemen". Araghchi warned that Egyptian involvement would further complicate the situation, and Cairo's limit matches the one Ankara set on 8 October against attacking another state's soil.
UK Ministry of Defence
UK Ministry of Defence
The MoD said on 20 October that RAF Typhoons over Saudi Arabia will not strike the Houthis, but extended tanker support to Saudi operations including against Houthi targets in Yemen. The tanker line sets no limit on strikes, so British aircraft may now refuel Saudi jets on bombing runs.
Turkey
Turkey
Ankara sent the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement to parliament around 20 October, and its published text treats an attack on one party as an attack on all. Article 16 brings it into force only on the last ratification, so the 5 October invocation in Riyadh could not yet bind Turkey.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.