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Iran Conflict 2026
5JUN

Two dead in Ramat Gan; 61st IRGC wave

4 min read
08:43UTC

An elderly couple — one unable to reach shelter due to a disability — were killed as the IRGC fired its broadest weapon mix yet at central Israel, shutting Tel Aviv's main rail hub.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Multi-warhead missiles targeting civilian infrastructure mark Iran's qualitative escalation toward punishment-based deterrence.

The IRGC launched the 61st wave of Operation True Promise 4 hours after Larijani's death, deploying Khorramshahr-4 and Qadr multiple-warhead missiles alongside Emad and Kheibar Shekan single-warhead projectiles 1. The weapon mix was broader than any previous wave. The cluster munitions that first penetrated Israeli defences the previous week tested area saturation; multiple-warhead missiles test a different failure mode — warheads that separate during terminal descent and multiply the number of incoming objects Israeli interceptors must engage.

A couple in their 70s were killed in Ramat Gan 2. One had a disability that prevented them from reaching shelter. Four others sustained light injuries. Israel's cumulative civilian death toll reached 17, up from 15 as of 14 March . Damage at Tel Aviv's Savidor Central station — the busiest interchange in Israel's rail network — forced suspension of services. Fires broke out in Petah Tikvah and Kafr Qasim.

The mixed salvo creates a layered problem for Israeli air defence. Arrow 3 must engage ballistic threats at the highest altitudes; Arrow 2 handles medium-range intercepts; David's Sling and Iron Dome must cope with whatever penetrates — including separated warheads that arrive as multiple distinct targets. Israel's cabinet approved NIS 2.6 billion (~$826 million) in emergency interceptor procurement days earlier , an outlay that reflects the burn rate: Arrow and David's Sling interceptors cost $2–3 million each, and Iran fired seven salvos in a single night the previous week . Semafor reported the IDF was running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors — a claim the IDF denied.

The IRGC claimed it struck "over 100 military and security targets" in the Tel Aviv area — unverifiable. The verifiable pattern is that each major Israeli strike against a senior Iranian official has produced a named retaliatory operation, and each successive wave has introduced a weapon type or combination not previously deployed. An IRGC spokesman stated days earlier that most missiles fired so far were produced "a decade ago" and that weapons manufactured since the war began remain unused . If accurate, the Khorramshahr-4 and Qadr warheads in the 61st wave are drawn from Iran's older inventory. Its newer arsenal has not yet been committed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran has been firing missiles at Israel throughout this conflict, but this wave used its more sophisticated weapons — missiles that split into multiple warheads in flight, making them harder to shoot down and able to hit several points at once. The train station hit in Tel Aviv is the main hub of Israel's national rail network; shutting it down affects hundreds of thousands of daily journeys and the movement of goods. The elderly couple killed could not reach a shelter because of a disability — a detail that reveals a gap in Israel's civil defence system, which was designed assuming people can move quickly. Critically, Iran is numbering and naming each wave publicly, which is itself a strategic communication: it tells Israelis and the world that Iran can sustain this indefinitely.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The disability of one of the killed victims — preventing shelter access — exposes a structural gap in Israeli civil defence: Home Front Command's shelter system was designed for able-bodied populations and has not been systematically adapted for mobility-impaired residents. Iran's shift to multi-warhead missiles multiplies simultaneous impact points, disproportionately affecting those who cannot rapidly relocate. This is not an Iranian targeting policy but an emergent civil defence vulnerability that will compound as the weapon mix improves.

Root Causes

Iran's publicly numbered retaliatory doctrine serves internal legitimacy needs: the IRGC must demonstrate institutional accountability for each Israeli strike on its leadership to maintain domestic credibility. The sequential numbering prevents any Israeli operation from being framed as a decisive, unanswered blow, regardless of actual damage inflicted.

Escalation

Iran escalated weapon quality — from cluster munitions (previous wave) to multi-warhead ballistic missiles — in direct response to the Larijani killing. This ratchet pattern, where each Israeli strike on a senior figure prompts an Iranian qualitative upgrade rather than a fixed retaliatory level, suggests Iran may deploy its most capable systems (including Fattah hypersonic variants) if further high-profile Israeli strikes occur.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Multi-warhead deployment signals Iran is expending premium inventory per retaliatory wave, potentially accelerating Israeli interest in ending the conflict before Iran exhausts and reconstitutes.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Sustained civilian infrastructure targeting — rail, power, airports — could trigger Israeli retaliation against Iranian civilian infrastructure in kind, crossing a threshold neither side has yet reached.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    Publicly numbered retaliatory operations (True Promise 1–61 and beyond) establish an Iranian doctrine of named institutional accountability for each Israeli strike on senior figures.

    Long term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Iran's ratchet pattern of qualitative weapon upgrades in response to each Israeli senior-figure killing could lead to deployment of hypersonic variants within weeks if further high-profile strikes occur.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #40 · Larijani dead; Israel hunts the new leader

Times of Israel· 18 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Two dead in Ramat Gan; 61st IRGC wave
The 61st wave demonstrates Iran's continued capacity to reach central Israel with a diversified missile arsenal despite eighteen days of degradation strikes, using a multiple-warhead and single-warhead combination that tests Israeli layered air defences against simultaneous failure modes.
Different Perspectives
Israel
Israel
The IDF struck a Lebanese army unit on 6 June, killing a colonel, and privately told Moscow that shelling near Bushehr was accidental, per Putin's SPIEF disclosure. Israel is advancing in Lebanon past an unenforced ceasefire text while maintaining a back-channel to Russia on nuclear-site deconfliction.
Lebanon
Lebanon
President Aoun told CNN on 5 June that Iran uses Lebanon as a bargaining chip and urged Hezbollah toward diplomacy; on 6 June an IDF strike killed a Lebanese army colonel on the Khardali-Nabatieh road. The Lebanese state is publicly rejecting Iranian tutelage while the army sustains casualties from Israeli fire and the Washington framework remains unenforced.
Bahrain
Bahrain
Bahrain's US Fifth Fleet headquarters was among the targets in the 5-6 June two-country salvo; its PAC-3 magazine stands at 87 per cent depletion with an 18-month resupply gap and no comparable arms sale has been announced. The state is defending a critical US regional command on a thinning interceptor stock.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait received a $1.98bn US counter-drone sale approval on the same day IRGC missiles targeted its bases; it expelled two Iranian diplomats on 4 June and filed a formal protest. The arms approval gives Kuwait a future capability but leaves a 6-18 month delivery gap that the salvo tempo is already pressing.
Russia
Russia
Putin reaffirmed Russia's offer to hold Iran's 440.9 kg HEU at SPIEF on 6 June, said Russia is not arming Iran, and disclosed that both the US and Israel privately told Moscow that shelling near Bushehr was accidental. The restatement casts Moscow as the only remaining mediator both sides call, a position serving Russian interests whatever the nuclear file produces.
Iran
Iran
The IRGC, per Iranian state media, fired seven ballistic missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, the largest two-country salvo of the war, and framed the launches as lawful retaliation; Foreign Minister Araghchi rejected Aoun's bargaining-chip accusation and Velayati warned Beirut against diplomatic naivety. Tehran has sent no HEU counter-proposal since Araghchi confirmed no progress on 4 June.