Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Tech Sovereignty
8SEP

Pakistan relays Trump's terms to Tehran

3 min read
15:06UTC

US envoys Witkoff and Kushner reportedly reached Iran's parliamentary speaker through Pakistani intermediaries — but Ghalibaf's authority to bind the forces prosecuting the war is an open question.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

Ghalibaf's IRGC background means any agreement he reaches cannot bind Iran's military without separate authorisation.

Axios identified Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker, as the Iranian figure in contact with the Trump administration 1. US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly spoke with Ghalibaf on Sunday evening 2. CNN reported the US shared a 15-point list of expectations via Pakistan 3. Whether Iran agreed to any terms remains unclear. Mediators are NOW working to arrange a face-to-face meeting between Ghalibaf and the US delegation in Islamabad.

Pakistan has form as an intermediary. Islamabad maintained working relationships with both Washington and Tehran through the 2015 nuclear negotiations and keeps intelligence-level contacts with the IRGC. The proposed Islamabad venue gives Pakistan a visible mediating role it has sought since hostilities began — and a stake in any outcome.

The choice of interlocutor raises a harder question. In Iran's constitutional architecture, The Supreme Leader commands the armed forces; the IRGC reports to his office, not to Parliament. Four days ago, Ghalibaf himself publicly threatened that regional energy and oil infrastructure "will be irreversibly destroyed" if Iranian power plants are struck . Whether he can negotiate a peace framework depends on who is directing him. The Jerusalem Post reported, citing unnamed sources, that the IRGC controls the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei rather than the reverse , and Mojtaba has not appeared in public since assuming office on 9 March . If the Guards are the effective authority, Ghalibaf's remit extends only as far as they permit.

The gap between Washington's claims and Tehran's denials is narrow but measurable. A senior Iranian Foreign Ministry official told CBS News: "we received points from the U.S. through mediators and they are being reviewed" 4 — a shift from Araghchi's categorical denial of any US contact four days earlier . Whether this opening widens into an Islamabad meeting depends on a calculation no Pakistani mediator controls: whether Iran's military leadership sees greater value in a diplomatic exit than in the toll revenues and strategic leverage the Hormuz Chokepoint currently provides.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US sent Kushner and Witkoff — Trump's personal envoys — to speak with Iran's parliamentary speaker through Pakistani intermediaries. The choice of Ghalibaf matters because he is not Iran's foreign minister or supreme leader: he is the speaker of parliament and a former IRGC commander. That is roughly like negotiating a company's debt restructuring with its head of parliamentary relations rather than its chief financial officer. He can convey messages and signal intent, but he cannot commit Iran's military to compliance with any terms he agrees. Any deal he reaches still requires separate sign-off from Iran's Supreme Leader and the IRGC command.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The Abraham Accords model succeeded with Gulf states that had economic modernisation incentives and no existential ideological objection to US engagement. Iran's case differs structurally: regime legitimacy is partly constituted by anti-American posture, and Ghalibaf's IRGC background makes him accountable to the same military command currently under bombardment. Transplanting an Accords-style personal-diplomacy methodology to a party under active attack — whose negotiating representative cannot bind its own military — is applying a tool designed for a structurally different problem.

Root Causes

Kushner's involvement — rather than career State Department diplomats — mirrors the Abraham Accords model: Trump's structural preference for personal-relationship diplomacy that bypasses institutional frameworks and moves with direct presidential authority. This model succeeds when counterparts have economic incentives to engage; it lacks the institutional backstop to manage failure when they do not.

What could happen next?
  • Opportunity

    Pakistan's intermediary role provides multilateral cover and face-saving architecture that publicly acknowledged bilateral US-Iran talks could not offer either government domestically.

    Immediate · Suggested
  • Risk

    The Kushner-led personal-diplomacy model has no institutional backstop if negotiations collapse — no State Department infrastructure exists to maintain continuity or manage failure gracefully.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Ghalibaf's selection as Iran's interlocutor confirms the IRGC-political complex, not the foreign ministry, is managing Iran's crisis response and will determine any settlement's durability.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Consequence

    If the Islamabad meeting occurs, it normalises direct US-Iran crisis contact at senior level, potentially reactivating diplomatic channels frozen since the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal.

    Medium term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #46 · Trump delays strikes; oil crashes to $99

Axios· 24 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Pakistan relays Trump's terms to Tehran
The channel's structure — Pakistan as go-between, a parliamentary speaker as counterpart — reveals both the possibility of negotiations and their limits. Ghalibaf holds no command authority over the IRGC or Iran's military operations, meaning any framework he discusses cannot bind the forces fighting the war unless the supreme leader's office and the Guards endorse it.
Different Perspectives
Poland
Poland
Poland leads a self-announced AI Gigafactory consortium with a EUR 100 million phase-one commitment, matched by Czechia and joined by Hungary at EUR 25 million. EuroHPC has confirmed no consortium for the call closing 12 November, so the bloc exists only in national announcements so far.
UK Government (DCMS)
UK Government (DCMS)
Secretary of State Lisa Nandy told the Commons on 3 September she has inherited the sovereign AI brief from Liz Kendall, but gave no assessment, figure or date on frontier-model access. It is the first public claim of ownership since DSIT's abolition, without the substance the committee asked for.
ASML
ASML
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet credited Intel Foundry, not a European fab, with shipping the first high-volume logic product made on High-NA EUV, the tool only ASML builds. Europe holds the chokepoint tool; the company that spent it into volume production first is American.
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
Luxembourg joined Mistral's Series D as a new investor on 8 September, the same government that co-funds EuroHPC's MeluXina-AI supercomputer. One small member state now funds the sovereign compute Mistral may need and holds equity in the company using it.
Samsung Electronics
Samsung Electronics
Samsung led Mistral's Series D on 8 September and the same day expanded its ASML collaboration on next-generation lithography. One Korean company now sits atop Europe's largest AI funding round and inside its most sensitive chip-tooling relationship.
Mistral AI
Mistral AI
Mistral closed a EUR 3 billion Series D above a EUR 21 billion valuation on 8 September, with Samsung leading and Luxembourg joining as a new state investor. The company markets itself as Europe's non-American AI option even as the round's lead capital comes from South Korea and two US private-equity firms.