Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
16JUL

Yemen's front began with a blocked flight

2 min read
09:48UTC

SABA reports at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen, and Kpler data shows tankers thinning out of the Bab el-Mandeb.

← Back to TTF hits EUR 55; the arb won't confirm itJump to analysis ↓
EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Both of the war's shipping chokepoints are tightening at the same time.

SABA (Yemen News Agency), the wire of the internationally recognised government in Aden, reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen 1. Kpler tracking data relayed by the Associated Press shows fewer tankers using the Bab el-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and Djibouti that carries Red Sea traffic towards the Suez Canal, after the week's attacks.

AP dates the current escalation to Monday 13 July, when a Saudi strike on Sanaa airport stopped an Iranian Mahan Air flight carrying a senior delegation from the Houthis, the Iran-aligned armed movement that has held northern Yemen since 2014; the coalition later let the aircraft land at Hodeida instead 2. Since then the Houthis have struck Abha airport, Saudi shipping and Saudi oil facilities, Saudi-led forces have hit Hodeida and Kamaran, missiles and drones have landed on Yemeni military camps, and Mokha port has been damaged.

Shipping that left the Gulf had been running this way instead. Vessels now avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb have no third route to take, so the two straits tighten together rather than one relieving the other. The 2022 UN-brokered truce that held Yemen's war at a simmer for four years is at risk on AP's account.

Several operational details in that reporting rest on anonymous Yemeni, Gulf and Houthi officials. This movement has also claimed more than has been shown: on 5 August it announced two tanker strikes when UKMTO logged a single explosion , and its July claim against crude transport infrastructure was never independently verified .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed movement that controls much of northern Yemen. Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti, used by ships travelling between Asia, Europe and the Red Sea. SABA reported 17 soldiers killed, while shipping data showed fewer tankers using the route. Violence in Yemen can therefore affect trade far beyond the country.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Traffic disruption at Bab el-Mandeb removes part of the alternative route available to Gulf-bound shipping.

  • Risk

    Unverified claims and counter-claims may prompt ships to divert before authorities establish what happened.

Sources:Associated Press·Associated Press
Mentions:Houthis →Saudi Arabia →Kpler →Bab al-Mandeb →UKMTO →Yemen →Suez Canal →Djibouti →Mahan Air →Red Sea →Iran →Associated Press →Zayed International Airport →Hodeidah →Kamaran Island →SABA →Mokha →
First Reported In

Update #168 · Iran replaces the man who set its terms

Associated Press· 11 Aug 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Two tanker claims, one logged blast
The reported Yemen casualties and tanker decline followed earlier Houthi attacks on shipping.
Occurred 5 Aug 2026
Read story →
This Event
Yemen's front began with a blocked flight
The southern chokepoint had been absorbing traffic pushed out of the northern one, so a squeeze there compounds the problem instead of relieving it.
Led to
Six dead in the Bab el-Mandeb
The Bab el-Mandeb deaths follow a week in which Houthi attacks had already reduced traffic through the strait.
Occurred 10 Aug 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.