13JUL

Zelenskyy ties elections to a ceasefire

2 min read

10:12UTC

After Trump said Ukraine should get a new leader, Zelenskyy set his terms: a total 60-day ceasefire, then elections.

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Key takeaway

Zelenskyy will hold elections only after a full 60-day ceasefire.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 9 October that letting Russia sell petroleum products was "an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged"⁠¹. On the same day he named a price for halting Ukraine's deep-strike campaign of long-range drone attacks inside Russia: no strikes on Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system.

Donald Trump went further on 10 October. Newsweek reported him telling reporters outside The White House: "I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal"⁠². Zelenskyy replied on 11 October on ABC's Sunday programme This Week that the choice is "up to our people". He named terms: "Total ceasefire, 60 days, and we will organize elections."

Ukrainian law bars elections under martial law, in force since February 2022, so a vote needs Moscow to stop firing first. Zelenskyy's answer moves the burden of an election onto the Kremlin. Mykhailo Fedorov, whose sacking as defence minister in July set off three days of protests across eight Ukrainian cities, was already pressing in August for a way round the ban.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ukraine has been under martial law, a set of emergency wartime rules, since Russia's full invasion in February 2022. Those rules ban national elections. On 10 October President Trump said Ukraine should find a new leader who can make a deal with Russia. President Zelenskyy replied that the choice belongs to Ukrainians. He said Ukraine would hold elections if there were a complete ceasefire lasting 60 days. The day before, Zelenskyy also offered to stop attacking Russian oil refineries if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine's power plants and lines.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Martial law has been in force since February 2022, and Ukrainian law forbids presidential and parliamentary elections while it lasts. Zelenskyy's five-year term began in May 2019, so the question of his mandate has run since May 2024 and gives Moscow and now Washington an argument to press.

A vote also needs conditions Ukraine cannot create alone: millions of citizens abroad or displaced, soldiers at the front, and occupied territory where no ballot can be held. Only a ceasefire makes those conditions possible, so Zelenskyy tied the two together.

The pressure for a new leader follows a familiar pattern. Trump and Putin last spoke at length on 29 April, when Moscow proposed a short Victory Day truce ; each call has been followed by US demands on Kyiv rather than on Moscow.

What could happen next?

Meaning
Kyiv has set out its first concrete sequence for a wartime vote: ceasefire, then 60 days, then elections.
Short term · Assessed
Risk
Open US calls for a new Ukrainian leader give Moscow a public argument against negotiating with Zelenskyy.
Medium term · Reported
Opportunity
A refinery-for-grid strike halt is a narrow deal both sides could test without settling territory.
Short term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States and Latvia

United States

Latvia

LeftRight

Primary parallel: Britain's general election due by 1940 was postponed by annual Prolongation of Parliament Acts, and the country voted only on 5 July 1945, two months after victory in Europe. A democracy at war deferred its vote until the fighting stopped, as Ukraine's martial-law rule now requires.

Counter-parallel: The United States held its 1864 presidential election in the middle of the Civil War, and Abraham Lincoln won a second term. A wartime vote is possible where the state controls its territory and soldiers can cast ballots, conditions Ukraine lacks with Russian forces in occupied regions.

Consensus view: A White House official told Axios, as TASS relayed on 12 October, that Trump "feels Zelensky is taking the US for granted" and expects him to honour what Trump calls an "energy ceasefire". Washington's reading treats Kyiv's refinery strikes as the obstacle and a change of leader as one way round it.

Counter-view: The Kremlin's own line points elsewhere. Ukrainska Pravda reported that Putin told Trump on 9 October Russia will keep fighting until it achieves "all its objectives", which leaves Zelenskyy's 60-day total ceasefire, the precondition for any vote, without a Russian taker.

Key tension: Whether Zelenskyy's offer of elections is a real path to a vote or a way to hand the decision back to Moscow, which must stop firing first.

First Reported In

Update #28 · US licenses Russian diesel and turns on Kyiv

LIGA.net· 12 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

OFAC opens US market to Russian diesel

Zelenskyy criticised General License 135 and set terms for halting refinery strikes the same day.

Occurred 9 Oct 2026

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Russian strikes cut Ukraine's grid links

Zelenskyy offered to halt refinery strikes if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine's energy system.

Occurred 10 Oct 2026

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This Event

Zelenskyy ties elections to a ceasefire

Zelenskyy turned Trump's call for a new leader into a demand that Moscow stop firing before any vote.

Led to

Kyiv ends energy truce, hits Ryazan refinery

Zelenskyy's refinery-for-grid offer lapsed when he declared the energy truce over.

Occurred 15 Oct 2026

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Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.