22JUN

Ukraine breaks ground on NATO-soil plant

2 min read

13:56UTC

Fire Point, the Ukrainian maker of the 3,000km Flamingo cruise missile, has begun building a rocket-fuel plant beside a Danish F-35 base, the first Ukrainian weapons production on NATO ground.

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Fire Point, the Ukrainian maker of the 3,000km Flamingo cruise missile, began building a solid-rocket-fuel plant at Skrydstrup, Denmark in early June, beside a Danish F-35 air base. Kyiv Post and Defence Express report it as the first Ukrainian weapons production on NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) soil⁠¹. NATO is the 32-member collective defence alliance founded in 1949; until now its members supplied Ukraine, not the other way round.

That reverses the pipeline this topic has tracked for months. Western kit, money and combat data flowed into Ukraine; now Ukraine exports the manufacturing doctrine back out. President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed exactly this at the B9 and Nordic summit in mid-May, bilateral drone deals struck independent of US export approvals. Skrydstrup executes that policy in concrete and steel.

Ukraine built roughly 4 million drones in 2025, more than every NATO member combined, and targets 7 million in 2026⁠². The plant on Danish soil also hands Russia a cleaner targeting argument than a hidden production line ever did. Russia's own drone and aircraft output is climbing fast, a parallel surge this briefing tracks separately.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Fire Point is a Ukrainian company that builds a long-range missile called the Flamingo, capable of reaching targets 3,000 kilometres away. To make that missile work, you need solid rocket fuel, which is difficult to manufacture safely at scale. Ukraine's factories have been badly damaged by Russian attacks, so Fire Point is building its fuel plant in Denmark instead, next door to a Danish military airbase. This is the first time a Ukrainian weapons company has put a factory on NATO territory. It changes how Ukraine's war effort is plugged into the Alliance: Ukraine is no longer just a recipient of weapons from NATO countries; it is now making weapons inside NATO.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Ukraine's domestic propellant production capacity was deliberately targeted by Russian missile strikes throughout 2023-2025. Fire Point's Flamingo requires solid rocket fuel that cannot be produced at adequate quality or scale inside Ukraine's depleted industrial base.

Denmark accepted the facility because its government had publicly committed to deeper bilateral defence cooperation with Ukraine at the B9 Nordic summit in May 2026. Skrydstrup's co-location with an F-35 base is not coincidental: shared security perimeters reduce incremental protection costs for Denmark while signalling deterrence depth to Russia.

What could happen next?

Precedent
Denmark hosting Fire Point opens a template for other NATO members to co-site Ukrainian production facilities, distributing Ukraine's defence industrial base across the alliance and hardening it against Russian strikes.
Medium term · Assessed
Risk
Russia may treat Skrydstrup as a legitimate military target under the laws of armed conflict, creating a new direct threat to Danish sovereign territory beyond the existing drone-incursion pattern.
Short term · Suggested
Consequence
NATO's legal directorate faces pressure to publish guidance on the co-belligerency question before additional facilities are announced; silence creates ambiguity that could be exploited by both Russia and domestic Danish politics.
Short term · Assessed

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: Britain's Royal Ordnance Factories were embedded in Canada and Australia during the Second World War from 1940 onwards, producing propellants and shells outside the UK to protect supply from Luftwaffe strikes. The structural mechanism matches: production sited in an allied country to reduce strike risk, with the host nation accepting that the facility is a legitimate military target for the enemy.

Counter-parallel: Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems opened a US joint-production line at General Dynamics' Scranton facility in 2024 for 120mm tank rounds, an arrangement in a non-combat context where the producing nation was not itself under active bombardment. Ukraine's situation involves an active belligerent siting production in a peacetime NATO host, which is structurally distinct and has no precise modern precedent.

Consensus view: Bruegel Institute analyst Guntram Wolff and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have both noted that Ukraine embedding production in a NATO ally changes the legal character of allied support from arms transfer to co-production, a shift that tightens the legal obligations on Denmark as host and potentially activates Article 5 implications if the facility were targeted.

Counter-view: Moscow's Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) argues the placement is primarily a commercial hedge: siting a propellant plant in Denmark insulates it from Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory, which is a logistical decision rather than a political escalation, and NATO's legal perimeter has not formally moved.

Key tension: Whether hosting an adversary's weapons production on alliance soil converts Denmark from a supplier state into a co-belligerent under customary international law: a question no NATO legal review has publicly resolved.

Sources:Militarnyi

Mentions:Fire Point →Denmark →Ukraine →NATO →SIPRI →Kyiv Post →Bruegel →General Dynamics →Australia →Moscow →Russia →Kyiv →Israel →F-35 →Canada →Volodymyr Zelenskyy →FP-5 Flamingo →Skrydstrup →

First Reported In

Update #11 · Ukraine starts exporting the factory

Militarnyi· 7 Jun 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Zelenskyy proposes EU drone deals at Bucharest summit

Zelensky's 13 May bilateral-drone proposal at B9+Nordic summit was the policy precursor; Skrydstrup plant and ten export offices are its concrete execution.

Occurred 13 May 2026

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This Event

Ukraine breaks ground on NATO-soil plant

Ukraine has moved from receiving Western kit to manufacturing its own weapons on allied soil, reversing the wartime supply pipeline.

Led to

Ukraine exports the factory, not the drone

Fire Point's Skrydstrup groundbreak opened the Build with Ukraine production corridor that the RSI / Fourth Law Lithuania MoU now deepens.

Occurred 18 Jun 2026

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Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.