24SEP

Texas queue swells to 438 GW

3 min read

13:52UTC

Texas approved its first formal large-load study process on 18 June, even as ERCOT's connection queue climbed to 438 GW, about 90% of it data centres. The plan to clear it is not due until autumn 2027.

← Back to Texas freezes data-centre permits Jump to analysis ↓

IndustryDeveloping

Key takeaway

ERCOT's queue has nearly doubled to 438 GW while the plan to clear it runs to autumn 2027.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved the state's first formal Batch Zero large-load study process on 18 June, the cohort method ERCOT will use to work through its connection requests⁠¹. ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs about 90% of the state grid, reported its large-load queue at 438 GW (gigawatts), roughly 90% of it data centres.

The queue climbed from 410 GW in April in about six weeks, and Texas first tried to clear it when it stood at 225 GW. It has nearly doubled since. ERCOT's final transmission plan is not due until autumn 2027, with the next application round, Batch 1, opening in summer 2027.

Intake runs at tens of gigawatts a quarter while the study meant to clear it takes years, so the backlog grows faster than any single cohort can be processed. A connection cleared through Batch Zero still cannot switch on without the transformers to serve it, and those are running years behind for new grid links. A transformer ordered today arrives after both the FERC show-cause responses and the Batch Zero plan are already on the table.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) is the company that operates the electricity grid for about 90% of Texas. When a company wants to connect a new power user, like a data centre, to the Texas grid, it has to apply for a connection and join a queue. ERCOT then studies whether the local grid can handle the extra load without causing problems for existing customers. That queue has now reached 438 GW, meaning companies have applied to connect 438 GW of new electricity demand, roughly five times Texas's actual peak electricity use of about 85 GW. About 90% of those applications are from data centres. On 18 June, Texas approved the first formal batch process to work through the queue, called Batch Zero. But the final plan is not due until autumn 2027, and the next round of applications does not open until summer 2027, meaning new data centres approved through this process will not have confirmed grid connections for at least two more years.

What could happen next?

Consequence
ERCOT's Batch Zero timeline locks the Texas data-centre grid-connection question to 2027-28, a 12-18 month gap that will be filled by BTM generation deals like Project Kilby rather than utility connections.
Risk
If queue growth continues at the 28 GW per two-month pace observed between April and June 2026, the queue will exceed 600 GW before Batch Zero's autumn 2027 plan is delivered, making any single batch process insufficient.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: California's interconnection queue managed by CAISO hit 400 GW by 2023, driven by solar and storage applications. CAISO adopted a cluster study approach (effectively a Batch process) in 2022 under FERC Order 2023, clearing roughly 150 GW of applications through deposit requirements and viability screens over two years. Texas is attempting the same mechanism three years later at a similar headline queue volume.

Counter-parallel: PJM's interconnection reform process, launched in 2022 after its queue exceeded 200 GW, took two years to implement a deposit-backed cluster process and still had not cleared the backlog by mid-2026. The counter-lesson from PJM is that clearing the existing queue does not prevent new applications from arriving faster than studies complete.

At 438 GW of queued applications, ERCOT's transmission upgrade costs to serve even a fraction of that load run into hundreds of billions of dollars. Texas's legislature has authorised $7.2bn in transmission bonds since 2023, a figure that covers roughly 20-30 GW of new large-load connections at an estimated $30-40 per kW transmission upgrade cost.

Operators that want certainty before autumn 2027 are building captive BTM generation rather than waiting for grid confirmation. Project Kilby targets first power in 2028, precisely when the Batch Zero transmission plan will be finalised. Owning the generator converts a grid-plan dependency into an energy-procurement decision.

Consensus view: Wood Mackenzie's North American power markets team has tracked ERCOT's queue growth and noted that Batch Zero's study process will disqualify a significant portion of applicants at the screening stage, since ERCOT requires firm financial deposits and demonstrated site control that speculative queue positions lack.

The real queue, after deposit-backed positions are separated from speculative placeholders, is estimated by Wood Mackenzie to be 30-40% of the headline 438 GW figure.

Counter-view: Rystad Energy's upstream power analysts have argued that the queue's speculative component does not reduce the transmission-planning burden, because ERCOT must model each application to determine which ones to clear. At 438 GW, the study volume itself is the bottleneck: ERCOT's transmission planning staff cannot run contingency studies for that many applications concurrently, making the autumn 2027 final-plan deadline optimistic regardless of deposit attrition.

Key tension: Whether ERCOT's Batch Zero deposit requirement will clear the queue to a manageable volume before the autumn 2027 transmission plan, or whether the queue will continue to grow faster than studies can clear it, as it has done since Texas first tried to clear it at 225 GW.

Sources:Utility Dive

Mentions:Oregon Public Utility Commission →Texas →California →Rystad Energy →Wood Mackenzie →CAISO →FERC →PJM Interconnection →Batch Zero →large-load interconnection queue →ERCOT →Public Utility Commission of Texas →Project Kilby →

First Reported In

Update #8 · Data centres build their own power plants

Utility Dive· 28 Jun 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Texas grid queue hits 410 GW

ERCOT's queue grew from 410 GW in April to 438 GW by June, the 28 GW increase that triggered the Batch Zero approval

Occurred 9 Apr 2026

Read story →

ERCOT large-load queue passes 225 GW

Texas first tried to clear this queue when it stood at 225 GW; it has nearly doubled since

Occurred 1 Apr 2026

Read story →

This Event

Texas queue swells to 438 GW

Texas is trying to process a connection queue that grows by tens of gigawatts a quarter with a study that takes years, so the backlog widens faster than any cohort can clear.

Led to

ERCOT freezes its 205 GW sorting job

The PUC's June approval of the Batch Zero process, against a 438 GW queue, created the classification timetable ERCOT suspended in August.

Occurred 2 Aug 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Chilean data-centre developers

Seven projects, one linked to Google, asked SEA this month for rulings that they fall outside full environmental review; four declared diesel-storage volumes just under the review-triggering tonnage, mirroring the mechanism Alto Jahuel used in July. The clustering suggests the threshold is being engineered, not sized to need.

An Coimisiun Pleanala

Ireland's planning appeals body refused the €1.5bn Killala data centre on 17 September, overturning Mayo County Council's 2025 grant for lack of a fixed grid-connection agreement and no corporate renewable power-purchase agreement. The ruling makes matched-power evidence, not planning consent alone, the deciding factor.

Housing Assembly and Foxglove

The two groups' 6 August appeal, filed through the Legal Resources Centre, kept Cape Town's approval of Equinix's data centre suspended through this window over missing water, emissions, noise and diesel-generator data. Deputy Mayor Eddie Andrews confirmed on 20-21 September that the suspension holds.

Brazil (President Lula, signing Redata)

Lula signed Lei 15.504 on 15 September, creating the Redata tax programme and keeping the Senate's water cap with no veto, while Aneel authorised Scala's AI City to join the national grid from January 2028. Brazil is recruiting capacity other markets are now turning away.

Aragon regional government (Eva Valle)

Aragon's economy chief Eva Valle said on 11 September that Spain's draft decree, requiring 80% hourly-matched renewables via a 10-year power-purchase agreement, is unmeetable by any project and threatens Blackstone, Azora and Microsoft builds already under way. Aragon holds 3,600 MW of granted grid access against 108 MW built.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Abbott ordered TCEQ on 21 September to halt every pending data-centre permit until projects pay their own way and complete ERCOT and Texas Water Development Board audits. Texas built the country's most permissive data-centre market; freezing it signals even that market has hit its grid limit.