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Data Centres: Boom and Backlash
2JUN

Texas grid queue hits 410 GW

4 min read
10:42UTC

ERCOT told Texas legislators its large-load queue has reached 410 GW, roughly 87 per cent data centres, even as transformer lead times stretch to 128 weeks.

IndustryDeveloping
Key takeaway

ERCOT's queue hit 410 GW, but a 128-week transformer wait decides what can actually connect.

ERCOT told Texas legislators its large-load interconnection queue has reached 410 GW, with roughly 87 per cent of it data centres 1. ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, runs about 90 per cent of the state grid. The figure comes from its own presentations to the Senate Committee on Business and Commerce on 1 April and the House Committee on State Affairs on 9 April. It is up from the 225 GW ERCOT logged weeks earlier , and it sits at nearly five times the state's 85 GW peak demand.

The requests keep coming; the iron to serve them will not arrive in time. PwC analysts, via pv-magazine, put average large power transformer lead times at 128 weeks, with some orders quoted at four years 2. That tracks GE Vernova's backlog, which grew to 100 GW with deliveries booked into 2029 before the firm added $5bn of transformer capacity through its Prolec deal . An order placed now arrives in 2028 at the earliest.

Industry trackers put close to half of US data-centre builds already delayed or cancelled on supply-chain grounds. ERCOT's connection-friendly rules let developers queue cheaply, so the 410 GW figure measures appetite, not committed demand. The transformer book measures what can actually be fed. When requests run at 410 GW and deliverable hardware runs at a fraction of that, the queue stops measuring intent and starts measuring who secured a slot.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

ERCOT is the company that runs the electricity grid for most of Texas. It told state lawmakers that companies have put in requests to connect 410 gigawatts of new load, almost all of it data centres. To put that in perspective, the entire state only uses about 85 gigawatts at its peak. The problem is that the equipment needed to handle all those connections, called large power transformers, now takes up to four years to build and deliver. So even if ERCOT approved every request tomorrow, most of them could not actually receive power until 2028 or later. The queue measures how many companies want to build; the transformer wait decides how many actually can.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

ERCOT's connect-first interconnection design was built for predictable industrial load growth in a state whose regulatory philosophy favours market entry over prescreening. Applications require a study deposit of roughly $10,000 to $100,000 per MW, trivial against the $1bn-plus capital cost of a hyperscale campus. That entry price creates a queue that measures ambition and option-holding rather than committed demand, pushing the 410 GW figure far beyond any plausible build rate.

Separately, the large power transformer supply chain runs on a fundamentally different timescale from data-centre planning cycles. A 500 kV autotransformer requires roughly 14 months of lamination steel processing, nine months of core winding, and six months of factory testing before shipment.

The total 24-to-30-month manufacturing window cannot be compressed because the steel supplier and the transformer manufacturer are different firms. GE Vernova's Prolec acquisition adds $5bn of production capacity, but Prolec's Mexican plants must also tool up for the US specification transformers that ERCOT's grid requires . The supply constraint is structural over a five-year horizon, not a temporary backlog.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Transformer lead times of 128 weeks mean that a large share of the 410 GW queue cannot receive power before mid-2028 regardless of regulatory approval, creating capital-at-risk for developers who ordered hardware in advance of grid connection.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Consequence

    ERCOT's queue overhang will drive a secondary market in interconnection queue positions and transformer delivery slots as speculative entrants face deposit deadlines, rewarding operators with early-mover hardware contracts.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Opportunity

    Jurisdictions with shorter transformer queues and cleaner grid-connection pathways, such as Finland's Fingrid or Arizona's APS, gain a supply-chain arbitrage advantage over ERCOT for near-term hyperscale builds.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

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ERCOT· 2 Jun 2026
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