Brent Crude closed Thursday at $100.46 per barrel — up 9.2% on the day and 49% above its pre-war level of $67.41 on 27 February. WTI settled at $95.73, up 9.7%. The $100 threshold that commodity traders had watched since the IRGC declared its absolute Hormuz blockade has now been breached on a closing basis.
The trigger was the International Energy Agency's March Oil Market Report, which called the war "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The trajectory has been relentless: Brent had climbed from $67.41 to $92.69 in the war's first week, spiked above $119 on Day 10 before a $30 intraday reversal on Trump's "very soon" language, and has now settled above triple figures. The pattern — spikes on operational reality, dips on political rhetoric, each trough higher than the last — is a market systematically discounting diplomatic signals in favour of physical supply data.
The IEA's record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release, announced earlier in the week, was designed to prevent precisely this outcome. Oil rose 9% the day after the release was announced. The US contribution of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will take 120 days to deliver at planned discharge rates; the supply gap is measured in days. Three cargo ship attacks in the strait on the same day as the announcement effectively nullified its market impact. Strategic reserves are designed for temporary disruptions with a visible endpoint. This disruption has neither.
The $100 close is also a credibility price. Energy Secretary Wright's deleted claim on 10 March that the Navy had already escorted a tanker through Hormuz — a statement that briefly sent oil down approximately 12% before retraction — and the contradictory escort timelines offered by Wright and Treasury Secretary Bessent on Thursday have eroded confidence that Washington can reopen the strait on any near-term schedule. When the administration's own cabinet members give incompatible answers on the same day about whether escorts are happening, imminent, or logistically impossible, the market prices in the worst case. Every barrel above $100 now carries a risk premium that is less about Iranian naval capability than about American governmental coherence.
