Rystad Energy is a Norwegian energy research firm covering oil, gas and renewables. Its relevance lies in turning operational, political and regulatory developments into market scenarios for producers, investors and governments.

The Firm appeared in coverage on 14 April as the source of an estimate linking a tanker-services licence to Brent pricing. Energy markets were also using named analyst price ranges during the March Hormuz disruption, when Brent briefly reached $119.

That work matters because an energy forecast is useful only when readers can see its assumptions. Rystad's public role is to attach market consequences to identifiable events, such as shipping restrictions, supply disruption and changes in demand.

Key Issues

Hormuz risk

Rystad priced the licence risk

On 14 April, Rystad Energy estimated that non-renewal of the GL-U general licence could ADD US$10-15 a barrel to Brent by removing legal cover for 325 tankers.

That estimate made Rystad's role clear in the crisis: it translated a regulatory Deadline into a price scenario that traders and policymakers could test against shipping access. The 14 April forecast also tied The Firm's analysis to a specific trigger, rather than treating the Hormuz disruption as a single permanent market condition.

Common Questions

What is Rystad Energy?

Rystad Energy is an independent Norwegian energy research and consultancy firm headquartered in Oslo, founded in 2004. It produces data, market forecasts, and scenario modelling across oil, gas, and renewables, and is widely cited by financial institutions and governments as a benchmark source for upstream cost analysis.Source: Rystad Energy

What did Rystad Energy forecast for oil prices in the Iran war?

Rystad modelled $110 per barrel by April in a two-month war scenario and $135 per barrel by June in a four-month war scenario. These projections were published as Brent Crude hit $119 intraday on 19 March 2026 amid the Iran-Israel-US conflict.Source: Rystad Energy

How do Rystad Energy forecasts compare to Wood Mackenzie and Vanda Insights?

Where Wood Mackenzie projected $150 soon with $200 possible, and Vanda Insights called $200 already within sight, Rystad published structured scenario ranges tied to conflict duration ($110-$135). Rystad's scenario-based approach is more Conservative and anchored to duration assumptions rather than point price targets.Source: Rystad Energy / Wood Mackenzie / Vanda Insights

Why is Rystad Energy influential in oil price forecasting?

Rystad's probabilistic, scenario-based methodology differs from single-point forecasts: it ties price projections to specific conflict durations, giving traders and policymakers a structured range rather than an outlier call. This makes its numbers the baseline benchmark against which more aggressive forecasts are evaluated.Source: Rystad Energy

Did Rystad Energy's Iran war oil price scenarios come true?

No. Rystad modelled Brent reaching $110 a barrel by April and $135 by June in structured war scenarios, but Brent instead fell to $70.60-71.70 by 2 July 2026 as the Hormuz risk premium unwound faster than physical supply was verified.Source: Rystad Energy

How much oil tax revenue is Russia losing as Urals falls below its budget benchmark?

Rystad Energy estimates Russia's combined oil tax take falls to $3-4 a barrel above production cost with Urals near $50, some 40-45% below the $8-10 a barrel implied by the government's $59 federal-budget benchmark.Source: Rystad Energy

Why did Rystad Energy doubt Germany's June 2026 gas storage injection record?

Rystad's European gas TEAM argued the 27 June surge, when Germany injected 1,207.5 GWh into storage with zero offtake, reflected a temporary coincidence of cheap gas and a dead-wind power price spike rather than a durable €40-44 per megawatt hour threshold for simultaneous power and storage demand.Source: Rystad Energy

Source Material

Rystad Energy: Official Website