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Conservative Party
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Conservative Party

UK official opposition led by Kemi Badenoch; squeezed between Reform on the right and Labour.

On 16 July 2026, the Conservative Party regained Old Catton in Norfolk from Reform UK, ten weeks after losing it by 1,006 votes, but it lost further council seats to Reform and The Greens over the summer.

Last refreshed: 7 October 2026 · Appears in 4 active topics

Key Question

Do the Old Catton and Dereham Toftwood wins mark a genuine Conservative recovery?

Timeline for Conservative Party

#19 12 Oct
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Background

The Conservative Party governed the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2024 through five prime ministers. Since the 2024 general election it has been the official opposition, led by Kemi Badenoch since November 2024.

In 2026 it competes with Reform UK on the right and Labour for government. YouGov put the party level with Labour on 19% in mid-July, behind Reform. It opposed the Representation of the People Bill when the Commons passed it by 411 votes to 102 on 2 September.

Badenoch has set out positions against both rivals. In September she argued that defence should rise to 3% of GDP, funded by welfare savings, and warned that Labour would run out of money. She dismissed Andy Burnham's voting-Reform pledge on 2 October as an attempt to lock in the left.

Key Issues
Local by-elections

Local gains proved hard to hold

On 16 July, Conservative candidate Antony Little regained Old Catton in Norfolk from Reform UK, which had taken the seat only ten weeks earlier by 1,006 votes. The party also gained Dereham Toftwood from Labour the same day.

Losses followed. In the by-elections of 30 July and 6 August, Reform took Snettisham, Heacham and Long Sutton from the Conservatives and an Independent, and The Greens took Hooley, Merstham and Netherne in Reigate and Banstead from them. On 27 August the party lost a Dover District Council ward to The Greens, while in Wandsworth's Trinity ward it finished second to Labour by 127 votes.

National polling

Conservatives face a divided electorate

YouGov's 31 May to 1 June poll put the Conservative Party on 18%, tied with Labour for the first time since 2024, with Reform UK on 27%. In its 12-13 July fieldwork the party stood on 19%, level with Labour and five points behind Reform.

The first YouGov poll after Andy Burnham became prime minister, published on 20 July, put the Conservatives on 21%, two points behind Reform on 23% and one ahead of Labour on 20%. Other pollsters disagreed on how far Labour had recovered: Deltapoll had Labour level with Reform on 28%.

Scottish representation

Scottish Conservatives lose their base

An Electoral Calculus model published on 7 April had projected that the Scottish Conservatives would hold no constituency seats, the first time since 1999. The 7 May Holyrood election left the Scottish Conservatives with 12 seats, their smallest result since 1999. They lost all five of their constituency MSPs, so every remaining seat came from the regional lists, and Scottish Labour, on 17, took over as the official opposition.

Scottish leader Russell Findlay refused to resign. On 14 May he answered leadership pressure by appointing both potential rivals, Murdo Fraser and Meghan Gallacher, to frontbench posts.

Common Questions

Conservatives break Reform's winning streak

Did the Conservatives win any council seats back in July 2026?
Yes. On 16 July 2026 the Conservatives gained the Old Catton division of Norfolk County Council from Reform UK and Dereham Toftwood on Breckland from Labour, their first gains of the Parliament from either party.Source: Lowdown UK Elections 2026
Is Reform UK taking Conservative voters in the 2026 elections?
Yes. Reform UK absorbed a large share of Conservative voters in eastern England, taking outright control of the Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk county councils in the 7 May 2026 elections.Source: uk-elections-2026 briefing

Conservatives sit third amid fragmentation

Where do the Conservatives stand in the polls after Andy Burnham became prime minister?
YouGov's 19-20 July 2026 poll put the Conservatives on 21%, third behind Reform UK on 23% and just ahead of Labour on 20%.Source: Lowdown UK Elections 2026

Findlay holds off his Tory rivals

How did the Conservatives perform in the 2026 elections in Scotland and Wales?
Scottish Conservatives finished on 12 Holyrood seats, their worst result since 1999, ceding official opposition to Scottish Labour. Welsh Conservatives won just 1 Senedd seat under the new closed-list PR system.Source: Lowdown
What did the IFS say about Conservative spending plans in Scotland?
The IFS rejected the Scottish Conservatives' NHS double-lock costings, finding they underestimated the cost by at least £600m. The IFS also demolished the fiscal plans of every Scottish opposition party.Source: IFS analysis, April 2026
Who is the leader of the Conservative Party in 2026?
Kemi Badenoch has led the Conservative Party since November 2024, having won the post-election leadership contest after Rishi Sunak's resignation. She is Leader of the Opposition in The House of Commons.Source: uk-elections-2026 briefing
How many seats did the Scottish Conservatives win in May 2026?
The Scottish Conservatives won 12 Holyrood seats in May 2026, their worst result since 1999, ceding official opposition status to Scottish Labour.Source: Lowdown UK Elections 2026

Reference

When were the Conservatives last in government?
The Conservatives governed from 2010 to 2024 under five prime ministers: Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, and Sunak. They lost the July 2024 general election to Labour.Source: Lowdown UK Elections 2026
How badly did the Conservatives do in the Makerfield by-election?
The Conservatives collapsed to fifth place on 2.2% of the vote in the 18 June 2026 Makerfield by-election, behind Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain.Source: event
Will the Conservatives stand against Nigel Farage in Clacton?
No. Kemi Badenoch dismissed Farage's stated July resignation as a 'fake by-election' and declined to field a candidate, but said the party would contest a genuine second Clacton by-election if the standards inquiry into Farage forces one.Source: event
What did Kemi Badenoch say in response to the King's Speech in May 2026?
Badenoch's response to the 13 May King's Speech catalogued 24 government U-turns in the first year of the Starmer administration, framing the Conservative offer as the alternative for voters disillusioned with both Labour and Reform.Source: Lowdown
Source Material

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 7 October 2026. Editorial standards.