Goldman Sachs

On 22 July, Brent reached $92.09 as war-risk premiums left tankers idle. Goldman Sachs framed $120 a barrel as its contingent fourth-quarter case if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted, against an $80 base case. That gap places the bank's work in the market's argument about duration and shipping access, rather than a call on one day's price.

Goldman's forecasts matter because they set conditions investors can test. Restored transit supports the lower case, while prolonged disruption supports the higher one. On 22 April, a Pentagon estimate that mine clearance could take up to six months made Goldman's $120 third-quarter scenario relevant to planning beyond financial markets.

On 14 July, Goldman Sachs said its headcount had fallen 2% to 46,200. Chief executive David Solomon did not attribute the reduction to AI, instead describing technology as a way for staff to do more work. The disclosure placed Goldman among profitable firms reducing staff without presenting automation as the cause.

Goldman's research unit had taken a broader position on 6 April. It estimated that AI could substitute for 25,000 US jobs a month while creating about 9,000 through augmentation. The distinction leaves the bank reporting a narrower explanation for its own workforce change than the economy-wide risk assessed by its analysts.