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Goldman Sachs
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Goldman Sachs

New York-headquartered full-service investment bank, founded in 1869, spanning banking, securities and asset management.

Goldman Sachs cut headcount 2% to 46,200 in the quarter it reported record revenue of $20.3bn on 14 July 2026, with CEO David Solomon declining to blame AI even as the bank's own research estimates AI could displace 25,000 US jobs a month.

Last refreshed: 14 August 2026 · Appears in 5 active topics

Key Question

Does Goldman's $90 Q4 Brent forecast assume Hormuz reopens, or hold even if it does not?

Timeline for Goldman Sachs

#159 22 Jul
#27 15 Jul
#17 14 Jul

Cut headcount 2% quarter-on-quarter on record revenue

AI: Jobs, Power & Money: Goldman cut 2% and refused the AI excuse
View full timeline →

Background

Goldman Sachs is a New York-headquartered full-service investment bank founded in 1869, with annual revenue of approximately $53.5bn spanning investment banking, securities, asset management and consumer finance. It operates under Federal Reserve and SEC oversight as a primary dealer in US monetary operations, giving its published estimates, from recession probabilities to commodity price calls, institutional weight beyond ordinary market commentary.

Daan Struyven, Head of Oil Research, produces Brent price forecasts under Hormuz disruption scenarios that European refiners and sovereign energy buyers use to calibrate hedging and forward-purchasing, making the bank's research division an unusually broad reference point across current coverage; the same division has separately produced Goldman's landmark estimate of AI-driven US job displacement. Goldman also holds one of twelve restricted partner seats in Project Glasswing, giving it privileged access to Anthropic's Mythos model.

The bank's dual exposure, as a commodities forecaster during the Iran conflict and as an authority cited throughout the AI jobs debate, alongside its own AI-adjacent workforce reduction, makes it an unusually cross-cutting institutional reference across separate strands of current coverage.

Key Issues
AI jobs research

Goldman sheds staff without blaming AI

Goldman Sachs reported second-quarter 2026 results on 14 July showing headcount down 2% quarter-on-quarter to 46,200 alongside record quarterly net revenues of $20.3 billion. CEO David Solomon declined to attribute the reduction to artificial intelligence, instead describing an AI investment cycle expanding capital needs into infrastructure, energy and data centres, with technology helping staff do more work rather than replacing them structurally .

That sits adjacent to, not in tension with, Goldman Sachs Research's own published estimate that AI could displace roughly 25,000 US jobs a month while lifting ten-year US total factor productivity by around 7%, worth an estimated $7 trillion. Management's declining to attribute the bank's own cut to AI and Research's economy-wide displacement forecast occupy different parts of the same institution; neither has commented on the other, so the juxtaposition is notable rather than a contradiction.

Common Questions
Why is Goldman Sachs forecasting higher Brent prices in late 2026?
Goldman's $90 Q4 2026 Brent forecast reflects expected market tightening from sustained Hormuz disruption and constrained non-OPEC supply. The forecast implies Goldman does not price in full Hormuz normalisation before Q4.Source: Goldman Sachs Research
What is Goldman Sachs forecasting for oil in the second half of 2026?
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven forecast Q4 2026 Brent at $90 per barrel in May 2026, $1 above the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook's $89 projection. Goldman also flagged that sustained Brent at $90-100 would generate sufficient demand destruction to offset part of the Hormuz-driven supply shock.Source: Goldman Sachs Research
What did Goldman Sachs find about early career AI displacement?
A 40-year Goldman analysis found workers aged 25-35 displaced early in their careers earn 10 percentage points less than never-displaced peers over the following decade. Gen Z recovers faster due to occupational mobility but faces wider immediate unemployment gaps.Source: Goldman Sachs, 6 April 2026
How many jobs is AI cutting per month according to Goldman Sachs?
Goldman's April 2026 research found AI substitutes 25,000 US jobs per month while creating about 9,000, a net loss of 16,000 positions monthly. Over twelve months that implies roughly 300,000 actual substitutions.Source: Goldman Sachs research, 6 April 2026
What is Project Glasswing and is Goldman Sachs involved?
Project Glasswing is Anthropic's restricted access programme for Claude Mythos Preview, limited to 12 partner organisations receiving $100 million in model credits. Goldman Sachs is one of those 12 partners.Source: Lowdown
Does Goldman Sachs think there will be a US recession?
Goldman put US recession probability at 25% in March 2026, driven by oil prices above $110 and the Iran war's impact on supply chains.Source: Goldman Sachs
What is Goldman Sachs predicting for oil prices?
Goldman projected Brent could breach $147.50 (the 2008 record) if Hormuz stayed disrupted for 60 days. It peaked at $126. Goldman later cut its Q2 forecast to $90 after the Ceasefire.Source: Goldman Sachs research
Does Goldman Sachs' own AI jobs research match its own headcount cuts?
Not directly. Goldman Sachs Research has separately estimated AI could displace 25,000 US jobs a month, but management has not attributed the bank's own Q2 2026 headcount fall to AI, so the two figures should be read as adjacent facts from different parts of the same institution rather than as confirmation of each other.Source: Goldman Sachs Research; Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 earnings
Did Goldman Sachs cut jobs because of AI in 2026?
Goldman Sachs reported headcount falling 2% to 46,200 in the second quarter of 2026, alongside record $20.3 billion quarterly revenue. CEO David Solomon declined to attribute the reduction to AI, instead describing a broader AI infrastructure investment cycle.Source: Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 earnings call, 14 July 2026
Who is Daan Struyven at Goldman Sachs?
Daan Struyven is Goldman Sachs' Head of Oil Research. He has been the primary author of the bank's Brent price forecasts during the 2026 Iran conflict and is cited in European oil market and regulatory positioning data.Source: Goldman Sachs
What is Goldman Sachs?
Goldman Sachs is one of Wall Street's two dominant full-service investment banks, founded in 1869, operating across investment banking, securities, asset management and consumer finance.
How does Goldman Sachs' oil forecast compare to the EIA forecast?
Goldman Sachs forecasts $90/BBL for Q4 2026; the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects $89/BBL. The $1 difference creates a coordinated sell-side view anchored above $89 for H2 2026.Source: Goldman Sachs / EIA
What is Goldman Sachs' Brent oil price forecast for Q4 2026?
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven forecast Q4 2026 Brent at $90 per barrel in May 2026, $1 above the EIA STEO's $89 projection, reflecting expected market tightening from Hormuz disruption.Source: Goldman Sachs Research
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