CFTC
US Commodity Futures Trading Commission; publishes weekly COT positioning data for WTI and ICE Brent futures.
Last refreshed: 18 May 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
What does the WTI-Brent speculator gap reveal about where the Iran war premium is priced?
Timeline for CFTC
Published 12 May 2026 disaggregated COT report showing WTI-Brent positioning split
European Oil Markets: WTI short, Brent long +58k contracts- What does the CFTC COT report say about Brent positioning in April 2026?
- The CFTC disaggregated COT for 28 April 2026 showed ICE Brent managed-money net long at +58,259 contracts while WTI managed-money was net short at -4,723 contracts — the widest speculator divergence between the two benchmarks in the current window.Source: CFTC COT
- When does the CFTC publish the Commitments of Traders report?
- The CFTC publishes the COT report every Friday, reflecting open-interest positions as of the previous Tuesday. For energy futures, it covers WTI on NYMEX and ICE Brent via ICE Futures Europe.Source: CFTC
- Why are oil traders watching the WTI-Brent speculator positioning gap?
- The gap between Brent net-long and WTI net-short in the managed-money category signals where speculative capital is placing the Iran war risk premium. A large Brent net-long relative to WTI indicates leveraged money expects Hormuz-linked tightness to persist in the Brent benchmark rather than spread to WTI.Source: CFTC COT
- How does CFTC data compare to ESMA positioning data for Brent futures?
- Both CFTC and ESMA publish weekly positioning data for Brent futures, but CFTC data is published faster (Friday versus ESMA's Monday) and is more widely used as the primary reference. ESMA's MiFID II data additionally covers ICE Gasoil positioning, which CFTC does not.
Background
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the US federal regulator for derivatives markets, established in 1974. Its flagship market-transparency publication is the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly (Friday, for prior Tuesday positions), which disaggregates open interest in futures markets by participant category: producers/merchants, swap dealers, managed money, and other reportables.
The CFTC's disaggregated COT report for 28 April 2026 showed WTI managed-money net short at -4,723 contracts while ICE Brent managed-money net long sat at +58,259 contracts — the widest WTI-Brent speculator divergence in the current market window. For spread-trading desks, the divergence is a direct read on where leveraged money sees the Iran war premium residing (in Brent, not WTI), and a signal that the Brent-WTI calendar-spread has speculative support at wider-than-usual levels.
For European oil desks, the CFTC COT is the most-watched public positioning dataset for WTI and Brent. When managed-money gross longs in Brent spike, desks read it as speculative demand overhang that can unwind sharply on negative catalysts — the COT is a risk-management read as much as a directional one.
