EIA STEO

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is the United States Energy Information Administration's monthly forecast for oil, natural gas, and electricity markets over an 18-month horizon. Published in the first or second week of each month, it carries the combined authority of US government data collection and professional energy-modelling staff, making it one of the two most-cited demand forecasts in the global oil market alongside OPEC's MOMR. The June 2026 STEO delivered a shock: it cut 2026 global oil demand expectations by 1.3mbd month-on-month, flipping an earlier forecast of 0.2mbd growth to a 1.1mbd contraction. The same report forecast OECD inventories at a 23-year low of roughly 2.3 billion barrels by December 2026 and projected a 2027 Brent average of $79/bbl .

The STEO is based on the EIA's proprietary Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS), which combines macro-economic inputs, sectoral energy-intensity models, and real-time supply data. It covers 48 countries and regions, breaking demand into transport, industrial, residential, and commercial end-uses. The month-on-month revision magnitude in June 2026 was described as a record for a non-recession period, pointing to downward revisions in industrial demand from major emerging markets. The report is released as a PDF with associated data tables and is freely available on the EIA website .

The STEO's authority in oil markets derives partly from its independence from producer interests and partly from its institutional data access. It is widely used by traders to benchmark demand-call revisions: a large month-on-month cut has historically correlated with downward pressure on the front month, while the inventory projection drives sentiment on the curve's structure. The June 2026 edition, with its record revision on top of a 23-year-low inventory base, created a rare split where flat price fell on the demand cut while backwardation was sustained by the structural floor.