24SEP

SLF opens a $4.06m South Carolina front

3 min read

11:45UTC

The Senate Leadership Fund filed $50.41m of independent spending in seven reports in a week. South Carolina, where it now backs interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone, took $4.06m.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Senate Republicans' main super PAC is now spending to hold South Carolina's Senate seat.

The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the Republican-aligned Senate super PAC (political action committee), reported $50.41m of independent spending in seven 24-hour reports filed from 15 to 21 October⁠¹⁠²⁠³⁠⁴⁠⁵⁠⁶⁠⁷. The largest sums went against Sherrod Brown in Ohio ($13.74m), Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan ($8.44m), Troy Jackson in Maine ($7.69m) and Josh Turek in Iowa ($5.90m). Smaller lines targeted Mary Peltola in Alaska, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and Dan Osborn in Nebraska. Most of that money lands in states where the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) already spends alongside its nominees, so outside Kansas and South Carolina, SLF adds weight to seats the party chose.

In South Carolina, SLF's spending reached $4.06m by 20 October⁠⁸. It ran against Democrat Annie Andrews and, from 19 October, in support of Darline Graham Nordone. She is the interim senator who holds the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham's death, and the Republican nominee. South Carolina was among the races ratings firms moved in September. With polling day on 3 November, SLF's spending suggests Republicans now treat South Carolina as a seat to defend.

None of the seven reports carries a line in Texas, Georgia or North Carolina. In Texas, SLF's money arrives through a committee it funds.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) is a super PAC, a group that can raise and spend unlimited money in elections as long as it does not plan that spending with any candidate. It works to elect Republican senators. In one week it reported spending over $50m, mostly on ads attacking Democratic candidates in close races. It has also started spending in South Carolina, where the Republican senator was appointed after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Lindsey Graham's death left an appointed interim senator, Darline Graham Nordone, as the Republican nominee.

SLF's own 24-hour reports understate its reach. It funds TEXAS PAC, which carries the Republican side in Texas, and state-named committees such as the Maine Standard and Cornhusker Majority in Nebraska. Money routed through them appears in their reports, not SLF's, which is why SLF shows nothing in Texas.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Further SLF 24-hour reports will show whether South Carolina spending grows or stays a small share of the total.
Meaning
SLF's absence from Georgia and North Carolina, matching the NRSC's, leaves the Republican nominees there with little national money.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: Two appointed Republican senators lost their first elections despite heavy party and outside spending: Martha McSally in Arizona in November 2020 and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia's January 2021 runoff.

Counter-parallel: In 2020, Democrat Jaime Harrison outraised Lindsey Graham with record sums in South Carolina, and outside groups poured in on both sides. Graham won clearly, a reminder that money has moved few votes in the state.

Below its four largest targets, SLF's seven reports carried $3.42m against Adam Hamilton in Kansas, $2.25m against Annie Andrews in South Carolina, $1.93m against Mary Peltola in Alaska, $1.76m against Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and $1.75m against Dan Osborn in Nebraska.

The week's total of $50.41m is Lowdown's sum of Schedule E lines across the seven reports. None of the lines targets Georgia or North Carolina, two states where the NRSC also gave its nominees nothing in September.

Consensus view: Sabato's Crystal Ball's five Republican-held Toss Ups on 14 October were Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. SLF's week tracks that list closely, with Ohio, Maine and Iowa among its four largest targets, plus Michigan, where it spent $8.44m against Abdul El-Sayed.

Counter-view: South Carolina was not on Sabato's list. SLF's $4.06m there by 20 October, $2.25m of it against Democrat Annie Andrews in this week's reports, puts money into a seat outside Sabato's Toss Up list. That reads either as polling the public has not seen or as insurance for an appointed senator with no campaign record of her own.

Key tension: Whether the South Carolina money is a sign of danger or a cheap hedge, given that it is under a third of what SLF spent against Brown in one week.

First Reported In

Update #21 · Senate GOP's cash lead trails its $20m loan

Federal Election Commission· 22 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

SLF funds new PACs in Nebraska and Maine

SLF's state-named committees preceded its own direct spending in new states.

Occurred 15 Oct 2026

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Sabato and Cook widen Democrats' map

Raters shifted South Carolina in September before SLF began spending there.

Occurred 23 Sept 2026

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This Event

SLF opens a $4.06m South Carolina front

SLF's South Carolina spending shows Senate Republicans' main super PAC now defending the seat Lindsey Graham held until his death.

Led to

Raters tip Ohio governor's race to Acton

SLF added $12.07m against Sherrod Brown after leading its 15 to 21 October filings with $13.74m against him.

Occurred 23 Oct 2026

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SLF's final $43.9m: 7 of 10 targets won

SLF added $4.60m against Annie Andrews after $4.06m earlier in South Carolina.

Occurred 1 Nov 2026

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Different Perspectives

University of Florida Election Lab

The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.

Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson

Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.

Senator John Thune

Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.

House Republicans under Jim Jordan

House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.

Donald Trump

Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.

Judge David O. Carter

Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.