Nebraska
Great Plains state; Senate race slipped from Safe R to Likely R after Fellowship PAC investment.
Nebraska's 2026 Senate race was downgraded from Safe Republican to Likely Republican by Cook Political Report on 13 April, after Fellowship PAC put $350,000 behind incumbent Pete Ricketts.
Last refreshed: 28 July 2026 · Appears in 2 active topics
Why is Fellowship PAC spending $350K on a Senate race rated Likely Republican?
Timeline for Nebraska
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US Midterms 2026Background
Nebraska is a Great Plains state whose capital is Lincoln. It is one of only two US states, alongside Maine, that allocates Electoral College votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all, a system that makes its 2nd congressional district, which includes Omaha, a perennial target in presidential years: the district voted for Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024 despite the state's overall Republican lean.
That split character extends to the state's Senate representation. Pete Ricketts, a former two-term governor, was appointed to the seat in 2023 after Ben Sasse resigned, and the 2026 rating shift toward Likely Republican reflects the modest extra vulnerability that comes with an appointed rather than elected incumbent, not a genuinely competitive state by national standards.
Nebraska's Senate seat becomes slightly less safe
Cook Political Report moved Nebraska's Senate rating from SAFE Republican to Likely Republican on 13 April 2026, one of four rating shifts issued that day and the first Senate-wide move since Trump's economic approval fell to 31% in late March .
The downgrade followed Fellowship PAC's decision to put $350,000 behind incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts in the first quarter of 2026, an unusually early major spend on a seat then rated safe . Ricketts, a former two-term governor appointed to the Senate in 2023 after Ben Sasse resigned, carries less built-in support than an elected incumbent, which analysts read as the likely trigger for both the PAC spend and the rating move.