24SEP

Cook moves 19 House races to Democrats

2 min read

11:45UTC

The Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races towards Democrats on 23 October and none towards Republicans, and now rates Democrats favoured in the 218 seats needed for a majority.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Cook now rates Democrats favoured to win a House majority, with a likeliest gain of 12 to 22 seats.

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan race-rating service, moved 19 House races towards Democrats on 23 October and none towards Republicans⁠¹. Six went from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, four of them held by Republican incumbents, and two open seats moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Cook says Democrats are favoured outright in the 218 seats needed for a majority in the House of Representatives, and puts the likeliest result at a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia's forecaster, reached the same line first: 28 House changes on 20 October pushed the seats it rates at least leaning Democratic past 218⁠². The latest batch extends a run of Cook moves in one direction, after it shifted 15 races towards Democrats on 25 September and about 29 more earlier this month.

Ratings are forecasts built on polls, money and history, and no votes have been counted. Republicans hold The House until the new Congress sits in January.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A party needs 218 seats in The House of Representatives for a majority. Republicans hold it now. Independent forecasters such as The Cook Political Report rate each race as safe, likely, leaning or a toss-up for one party. On 23 October Cook moved 19 races towards Democrats and none towards Republicans. Cook now says Democrats are favoured to win a majority. These are forecasts, not results: no votes have been counted yet.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Midterms tend to punish the president's party; one reason is that the out-party's voters are more motivated to turn out when they hold no power in Washington. Since the Second World War the president's party has lost House seats in most midterms.

Rating services also respond to the same inputs, mainly polls and fundraising reports. When those move one way, several raters tend to move together, as Cook and Sabato did within three days.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In 2018, the last midterm with Donald Trump in The White House, the main raters moved House seats steadily towards Democrats through October, and Democrats took The House.

Counter-parallel: In 2022 the same raters expected a large Republican gain, and Republicans won The House by a far narrower margin than forecast. One-directional rating moves have overshot before.

Consensus view: The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball now both put Democrats at or past 218 seats at least leaning their way, after Sabato's 28 changes on 20 October and Cook's 19 on 23 October.

Counter-view: No votes have been counted, and Cook had already moved about 29 House races towards Democrats since 1 October. Late moves in the same direction can reflect raters reading the same polls as much as new evidence.

Key tension: Whether the Toss Up seats Cook still lists break together, as in most wave years, or split.

Sources:Cook Political Report·Sabato's Crystal Ball

Mentions:Cook Political Report →Sabato's Crystal Ball →House of Representatives →Donald Trump →White House →Virginia →Democratic Party →

First Reported In

Update #22 · Senate Democrats borrow $15m, outspend GOP

Cook Political Report· 27 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats

Cook's 19 moves follow about 29 House moves towards Democrats earlier in October.

Occurred 14 Oct 2026

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This Event

Cook moves 19 House races to Democrats

Both main forecasters now have Democrats favoured to win the House, though no votes have been counted and Republicans hold it until January.

Led to

Democrats win the Senate and the House

NBC's House tally ran 12 seats past the top of Cook's 23 October forecast of a 12 to 22 seat gain.

Occurred 3 Nov 2026

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Different Perspectives

University of Florida Election Lab

The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.

Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson

Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.

Senator John Thune

Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.

House Republicans under Jim Jordan

House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.

Donald Trump

Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.

Judge David O. Carter

Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.