YouGov's Westminster poll on Sunday 31 May and Monday 1 June put the Greens at 15%, down from their pre-election peak of 17% when they briefly led Labour 1. Over the same poll, Reform rose three points to 27%, and Conservatives and Labour sat tied at 18%, the first time the two have been level since before the 2024 general election.
Read structurally rather than as a scoreboard, the Green number tracks a transition. The surge that peaked while the party was still in opposition has softened now that the Greens actually run Hackney and Lewisham and prop up the Plaid Cymru minority government in Cardiff. A protest vote is cheap; governing is not, and the deflation coincides with the arrival of real responsibility. The Liberal Democrats after 2010 and UKIP after their local breakthroughs followed the same compression once they owned decisions rather than only opposing them. Labour appears to be reclaiming Green-curious voters as the anti-Reform tactical choice in Westminster terms.
Reform's move cuts the other way and exposes its own split between vote and organisation. Its national share is climbing even as it sheds councillors, with departures since polling day now in the high twenties . Winning the argument with voters and keeping the people who won the seats are turning out to be different problems.
