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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
17OCT

IRGC fires 66th wave in 21 days

4 min read
17:43UTC

The IRGC fired its 66th attack wave using multi-warhead missiles and four weapon systems, three weeks into a campaign the US says destroyed 90% of Iran's strike capacity.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Simultaneous targeting of Israel and US bases forces two separate missile-defence systems to exhaust interceptors concurrently.

The IRGC announced its 66th wave of attacks on Thursday — 66 waves in 21 days, averaging more than three per day since hostilities began on 28 February. This salvo deployed what the IRGC described as "super-heavy multi-warhead" Qadr missiles alongside Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, and Zolfaqar systems, targeting positions in Israel and at US military bases across the region.

The sustained tempo runs directly counter to American and Israeli damage assessments. Netanyahu claimed on 19 March that Iran can "no longer make ballistic missiles" — a statement the IAEA has not corroborated and no independent agency with inspection access has confirmed. US officials have estimated Iranian capacity is down 90%. Yet the IRGC continues to fire multi-system salvos at a rate that shows no deceleration from the war's first week. Minutes before his death on Thursday, IRGC spokesman Naeini had publicly insisted Iran was still manufacturing missiles — his final public statement before an airstrike killed him in Tehran.

The weapon systems in this wave each serve distinct tactical functions. The Khorramshahr is Iran's longest-range liquid-fuelled Ballistic missile, with an assessed range of 2,000 kilometres and a warhead capacity of approximately 1,500 kilograms — built for strategic targets deep in Israeli territory. The Kheibar Shekan, a solid-fuelled medium-range system first unveiled in 2022, requires significantly shorter launch preparation, making it harder to detect and destroy on the ground. The Zolfaqar is a tactical precision missile used operationally against ISIS positions in eastern Syria in 2017 and again during the April 2024 strikes on Israel. The Qadr variant now described as "super-heavy multi-warhead" — if carrying functional multiple re-entry vehicles — would complicate interception by forcing defence systems to track and engage several warheads per incoming missile rather than one.

The IRGC claimed on 15 March that most missiles fired so far were produced "a decade ago" and that weapons manufactured after the initial strikes remain unused. If accurate, Iran's pre-war stockpile depth exceeds what three weeks of intensive US targeting has depleted. The cost asymmetry compounds the problem for defenders: Israel's emergency NIS 2.6 billion interceptor procurement buys Arrow and David's Sling rounds at $2–3 million each, while Iranian ballistic missiles cost a fraction of that to produce. At Iran's current firing rate, each wave imposes cumulative inventory and financial pressure on Israeli and Gulf air defences regardless of interception success rates — a dynamic that favours the side with cheaper munitions and deeper magazines in any prolonged exchange.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

When Iran fires missiles at both Israel and US bases at the same time, two entirely separate defence systems — Israel's Iron Dome and the US Patriot and THAAD networks — must respond simultaneously. Each interceptor missile costs several times more than the attacking missile. After 66 attack waves over three weeks, the cumulative drain on allied interceptor stockpiles is strategically significant. Iran is also claiming a 'super-heavy multi-warhead' Qadr capability not previously publicly confirmed — either a genuine reserve weapon revealed under pressure, or a propaganda escalation designed to inflate the perceived threat and strain defensive planning.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The numbering of attack waves serves a domestic Iranian function as much as a military one. Each new wave number signals to the Iranian public that the regime is still prosecuting the war, directly counteracting the credibility damage caused by the supreme leader's physical absence. The propaganda and military attrition functions are structurally inseparable in this wave model — removing either would collapse the other.

Root Causes

Iran's 'mosaic defence' doctrine — developed after the Iran-Iraq War and institutionalised in IRGC operational planning — explicitly anticipates asymmetric conflict against technologically superior adversaries, prioritising volume and persistence over precision to exhaust rather than destroy. The wave-numbering structure is the doctrine operating as designed, not improvised desperation; each wave simultaneously fulfils military attrition and domestic propaganda functions.

Escalation

The introduction of 'super-heavy multi-warhead' Qadr missiles into the named inventory represents either a genuine capability revelation or a deliberate escalatory propaganda claim. If genuine, it suggests Iran retained a strategic reserve specifically for this phase. If fabricated, it indicates the regime is substituting psychological escalation for material capability as conventional stockpiles deplete — itself a signal of approaching inventory exhaustion.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Sixty-six named waves over 21 days establishes a deliberate attrition tempo designed to exhaust interceptor stockpiles faster than allied production lines can replenish them.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Consequence

    Allied Patriot and THAAD interceptor inventories face cumulative depletion at a rate production lines cannot replace within months, creating a medium-term missile defence gap regardless of conflict outcome.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Risk

    If the 'super-heavy multi-warhead' Qadr claim is genuine, it represents a withheld strategic reserve — suggesting further undisclosed capabilities may be deployed in subsequent waves.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Meaning

    Simultaneous targeting of Israel and US bases forces cross-command coordination between two separate air defence networks, creating potential seam vulnerabilities in integrated defence response.

    Immediate · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #43 · Trump floats wind-down, deploys 2,200 more

Iran International· 21 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
IRGC fires 66th wave in 21 days
Iran's sustained missile tempo — averaging more than three waves daily with no visible deceleration — contradicts US and Israeli claims of near-total capacity destruction and raises unresolved questions about pre-war stockpile depth and the long-term cost sustainability of allied missile defence.
Different Perspectives
Bulgarian government
Bulgarian government
Bulgaria's Prime Minister, Rumen Radev, said the sinking of HS Dignity "benefits the Russian Federation" while saying Bulgaria lacked solid evidence to accuse anyone, and Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov asked NATO for air defence on 16 October. The request comes from a government that stopped state military aid to Ukraine in June.
Radoslaw Sikorski
Radoslaw Sikorski
Poland's foreign minister challenged Elon Musk on X after SpaceX capped Ukraine's Starshield terminals on 14 October. Poland pays about $50m a year for Ukraine's Starlink subscriptions, so Warsaw speaks as the paying customer as well as the ally.
Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham
Burnham fast-tracked £10m of a £45m air-defence missile delivery when Zelenskyy visited London on 14 October, and his ministers are lobbying allies to ban maritime services for Russian liquefied natural gas. The measure targets insurers and shipowners, many of them in London, rather than the gas itself.
Ministry of External Affairs (India)
Ministry of External Affairs (India)
India's foreign ministry said after the 16 September House vote that New Delhi would take all necessary measures to protect its trade.
European Council
European Council
EU leaders on 15-16 October rejected a US idea to hand Washington the roughly €200bn of frozen Russian assets held in Europe, and Kaja Kallas said the decision belongs to Europeans. The same summit put off a decision on financing Ukraine, saying leaders "will revert to the issue in a timely manner".
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Trump signed the 16 October order that sets the Graham Act's duties and waives them under section 115(a), with a certification sent to Congress. He says the United States has not stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and on 11 October he said both sides had agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.